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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9312252046.AA03670@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: WARNING: Potential Major Solar Flare Warning
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: 	Sat, 25 Dec 1993 22:46:54 +0200
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                     POTENTIAL MAJOR SOLAR FLARE WARNING

                        ISSUED: 20:30 UT, 25 DECEMBER

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PRIMARY CANDIDATE FOR HIGH SOLAR ACTIVITY : REGION 7640 (N08E08@25/2400Z)

 --------------------------------------------------------------------------
|   ESTIMATED POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF ENERGETIC ACTIVITY OVER NEXT 7 DAYS   |
|--------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| DAYS |   C5.0   |   M1.0   |   M5.0   |   X1.0   |   X5.0   |   >X12.0   |
|------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|------------|
|1(+)PG|  100 %   |   65 %   |   30 %   |    5 %   |    1 %   |     0 %    |
|3( )PG|  100 %   |   70 %   |   40 %   |   10 %   |    2 %   |     1 %    |
|5( )PG|  100 %   |   70 %   |   50 %   |   15 %   |    3 %   |     1 %    |
|7(-)PG|  100 %   |   70 %   |   50 %   |   15 %   |    3 %   |     1 %    |
 --------------------------------------------------------------------------

DAYS = Number of days (from present) into the future (1, 3, 5 and 7 days).
(+)  = Primary candidate region expected to GROW and DEVELOP.
( )  = Primary candidate region expected to STABILIZE or remain STABLE.
(-)  = Primary candidate region expected to DECAY and SIMPLIFY.
(x)P = Possible proton and/or PCA threat. (x) may be one of (+), (-), or ( ).
(x)G = If a favorable major flare develops, a moderate to high probability
       exists that the event may be geoeffective.
xx % = Probability of activity equalling or exceeding the given x-ray class
       sometime over the next number of DAYS.
WLT  = Data not applicable due to the West Limb Transit of the target region.

The above chart should be used as a guide only.  It represents anticipated
levels of activity based on current projections of region development.
Actual conditions may, of course, differ from these projections.


SYNOPSIS:

     Region 7640 continues to show growth in penumbral area and has
maintained a respectable level of magnetic complexity.  This region is
becoming an increasingly likely candidate for larger M-class or even an
isolated X-class flare. Frequent C-class flaring is expected to continue from
Region 7640 with occasional multi-hour enhancements of background x-ray
levels above C-class levels.  A proton flare is no longer out of the
question.  This region should be watched closely.

     This warning will remain active until 02 January 1994 when it will be
allowed to expire.  Updates will be posted, as necessary.


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