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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9312081004.AA15468@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WATCH: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Watch
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 8 Dec 93 3:04:04 MST
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 179
Status: RO

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                    MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH

                    WARNING ISSUED: 04:30 UT, 08 DECEMBER

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 09 DECEMBER

MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 08 DECEMBER (UT days)

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 3 DAYS: 35, 15, 12 (08 DEC - 10 DEC)
(INPUT INTO THE PREDICTIVE AURORA SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE

ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT

EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE:  LOW

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN WASHINGTON STATE TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TO SOUTH DAKOTA TO
        MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TO MICHIGAN TO MAINE, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
        OF ACTIVITY OBSERVED FROM NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NEARBY DARK-SKY SITE
        STATES.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        NORTHERN U.K. TO NORTHERN EUROPE INCLUDING MOST OF NORWAY, SWEDEN,
        AND FINLAND TO NORTHERN RUSSIA.  EXTREME SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA AND
        NEW ZEALAND SITES MAY ALSO OBSERVE ACTIVITY.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.


SYNOPSIS...

     An unexpectedly strong interplanetary disturbance arrived near
     12:00 UTC on 07 December which resulted in gradual
     intensification of auroral activity.  Minor auroral storming
     has developed early on 08 December and is expected to continue
     through most of the local night hours of 08 December, possibly
     extending to 09 December before subsiding.  Lunar phase will not
     significantly hamper attempts to observe activity prior to about
     02:30 am when moonrise begins.

     This WATCH will remain active until 19:00 UT on 09 December when
     it will be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Watch  **


