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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 30 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 30 Nov 93 21:26:56 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                30 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 334, 11/30/93
10.7 FLUX=103.7  90-AVG=095        SSN=101      BKI=1000 1210  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B2.4     FLU1=3.1E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2101 1211  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=008,004,004,003,006,016,009,002   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C9.2   @ 0609UT    XRAY-MIN= B2.0   @ 0156UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.6
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2140UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0235UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1250UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55358NT @ 0109UT   BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 1851UT  BOUTF-AVG=55351NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1914UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-058NT@ 1145UT  G6-AVG=+092,+017,-030
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,105;SESC:105,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=051,025,025/050,040,020
    KFCST=5566 6655 4565 4433  27DAY-AP=008,077   27DAY-KP=1011 2234 6667 6544
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJSTRM;*AURMIDWRN
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 29 NOV 93 was  43.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 29 NOV 93 are: 4- 2- 2o 2o   2o 2- 2- 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. A few C-class x-ray bursts
       occurred. The largest of these was a C9 at 30/0608Z associated
       with minor discrete radio emissions. Region 7624 (N03W14)
       showed minor growth and produced a single B-class subflare.
       Region 7627 (S18E70) displayed active surging as it continued
       to rotate into view. It also produced an eruptive prominence
       very early in the period which reached 0.18 solar radii. New
       Region 7628 (S21W58) was also numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Regions 7624 and 7627 may produce C-class flares. Region
       7627 also provides a slight chance for an M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at major storm levels during the first day due
       to coronal hole effects. Activity is expected to gradually
       decline to mostly active levels by the final day.

            Event probabilities 01 dec-03 dec

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 dec-03 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/25
                        Minor Storm           25/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    40/15/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/25
                        Minor Storm           20/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    45/20/20

            HF propagation conditions continued normal throughout the
       day.  Conditions are expected to become substantially degraded
       on 01 December due to a well-placed coronal hole.  Very poor to
       frequently useless propagation is expected over many transpolar
       and transauroral paths, particularly those in the night-
       sectors.  Middle latitudes should see fair to occasionally very
       poor propagation with the heaviest degradation occuring the
       local night hours.  Full recovery is not expected for several
       days after the storm subsides.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7623  S10E14  161  0030 CRO  03  006 BETA
7624  N03W14  189  0090 DAO  06  022 BETA
7625  S14W13  188  0060 DAO  07  015 BETA
7627  S18E70  105  0140 DAO  10  006 BETA
7628  S21W58  233  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7622  N14W47  222                    PLAGE
7626  N27W01  176                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 DECEMBER TO 03 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 30 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0600 0608 0619              C9.2            240



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 30 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
29 Nov: 0321  0328  0334  C1.1                                         
        0631  0636  0641  B6.0                                         
        0725  0730  0734  B3.8  SF  7623  S13E37                       
        0736  0739  0742  B3.8                                         
        1007  1012  1016  C1.1                                         
        1402  1403  1412        SF  7625  S14E06                       
        1511  1515  1518  B6.2                                         
        1732  1737  1742  B4.3                                         
        1903  1910  1916  C1.2                                         
        2029  2034  2042  B4.7                                         
        2259  2316  2326  C2.1                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7623:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 9.1)
  Region 7625:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 9.1)
Uncorrellated:  4   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    009  (81.8)

 Total Events: 011 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
29 Nov: 2259  2316  2326  C2.1                     Surge

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


