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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 93 23:06:21 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                29 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 333, 11/29/93
10.7 FLUX=093.8  90-AVG=094        SSN=092      BKI=4212 2221  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B1.9     FLU1=6.6E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=4222 2222  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=040,010,008,011,010,010,010,008   DEV-AVG=013 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.1   @ 2317UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.5   @ 0136UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.7
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0550UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2300UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1410UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55360NT @ 0221UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 1915UT  BOUTF-AVG=55351NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+063,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 1714UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-055NT@ 1028UT  G6-AVG=+086,+017,-029
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=018,051,025/025,070,030
    KFCST=3344 3334 5566 6655  27DAY-AP=004,008   27DAY-KP=2121 1211 1011 2234
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJSTRM;*AURMIDWRN
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 28 NOV 93 was  42.3.
      The Full Kp Indices for 28 NOV 93 are: 1- 1o 0+ 1o   2o 2- 1o 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Three C-class x-ray bursts
       occurred and were probably produced by new Region 7627
       (S19E85). Active surge and prominence activity accompanied the
       region as it rotated into view midway through the period. New
       Region 7626 (N28E12) was also numbered.

       STD: Strong Ca XV emissions were observed today on the
       southeast limb centered at S19, spanning from S31 to S10.
       These emissions were also accompanied by strong Fe X and Fe XIV
       emissions.  Weak Ca XV emissions were observed yesterday.
       This area is also bright in x-rays, as seen by the Yohkoh
       satellite.  A full-disk Yohkoh image has been reduced and
       appended to this report.  The large northern polar coronal hole
       extension is also clearly visible, approaching the central
       meridian at 00:40 UTC on 29 November.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7627 may continue to produce C-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. Isolated active periods also occurred.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at unsettled to active levels during the first
       day increasing to major storm levels during the second day.
       Brief severe storm periods could also occur during the second
       day, particularly at high latitudes. Activity is expected to
       decline to active to minor storm levels during the final day.
       This activity is expected due to recurrent coronal hole
       effects.

            Event probabilities 30 nov-02 dec

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 nov-02 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/35
                        Minor Storm           15/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/40/20

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/30
                        Minor Storm           20/20/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/50/20

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Tommorrow (30 November) should see the last period of stable
       ionospheric communications.  Late on 30 November and/or
       particularly on 01 December, conditions are expected to become
       substantially disturbed.  High and polar latitude paths are
       expected to become frequently useless, particularly during
       the local night and sunrise sectors due to potentially strong
       geomagnetic and auroral storm activity.  These effects should
       also migrate to the middle-latitude regions, affecting many
       middle-latitude paths and limiting propagation to more
       north-south oriented paths.  Conditions are not expected
       improve for several days after the storming subsides, but
       should have returned to near-normal by about 04 or 05 December.

       NOTE that there is a chance for VHF auroral backscatter during
       the most disturbed periods (geomagnetic K-indices of 6 or
       more).  Please report VHF and or other unusual or interesting
       HF/VHF contacts during this period to: COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7620  N04W85  273  0150 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7623  S11E27  161  0020 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7624  N03W00  188  0030 CRO  06  009 BETA
7625  S15E01  187  0050 DSO  06  016 BETA
7626  N28E12  176  0010 BXO  04  004 BETA
7627  S19E85  103  0050 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7622  N14W34  222                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 NOVEMBER TO 02 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 2027 2028 2028                          110



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
29/ 2158             A2344       S29E90   EPL    C2.1   27


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
51   N57E87 S11W06 N25W24 N60W01  180  EXT   POS   095 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
28 Nov: 0050  0102  0109  B7.4  SF  7623  S11E49                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7623:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (100.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    000  ( 0.0)

 Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     29 November 1993, 00:40 UTC

                                    North
                            ...      .. ... ........,,,:::,,,,,,....
                  ..........             ..,,,:,,,,::;;;;;::::,,,,,....        
           .. .....,,,,..            ...,,:::,,,:::::,,::;;;::::::,,,....      
     .......,,,,,::,.               .,,,,....,,,,,,,,,,,,,::;;;;;:::,,,...     
    ...,,,,,:::::,..  .......       .........,,,,,,,,,,,:,::::;;;;;;::,,... .  
  ....,,,,::::;:,... ..,,.,,,,,,.       .,.,,,,,,,,,,::::::::;::;+--;:::,,.....
 ...,,,:::;;;:;:,,,..,;;;:,::::,...   .  ..,,,::::::;::::::;::::;;;-;;;:::,,,..
 ...,:::;;;;:::,::,..;|!!|;::::,,,.       .,,::;;;;;;;;;:;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;::::,,,
..,,,::;;---;::::::,,,--!!!+;:::...      . ..,,;;---------;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;:::,
.,,:::;;-;;;;::::;;;::,.,--;,,...           ...:;;-+||||||+------;;;;;;---;;;::
.,,::;;-;;;;;::,,::::,,.  .   ..          ....,,:;-+|!!!||||+----------++--;;;;
,:::;;;;:::::::::::::::.. .  ...          .,::::;+**111!!||||+--++++++++++---;;
,::;;--;:;;;;;::;;:::,,,....,,.....      .,:;:;:;-11|+||++++|---+!!!|!11|+++-;;
::;;---;::;;;;;;-;;;;:,,,. ..,:|+::,...  .,:::;;;--++---++---;-++|!!12##3!!+-;:
:;;--+-;;;-----+--;-;;:,.. ..,;22+;:... ..,,::::;;;-------;;;;;--+||!1**41+-;;:
:;;--++---++|!|!!|-;::;:.....,,,,,,,   ..,,,,:::::::;;;;;;::::;;;----|34!|-;;:,
:;--+|2!+++|!12221|-;,,..,.,,,:,,.......,,:::,::::::::::::::::::;;;;--+||+;::,,
:;--+!33|++!123421!+;;,,:;;;;-+-;:,....,,,:::::::::::::::::::::::;;-;;;;+-;:,,,
:-+|14#@3|!!12221!2|+--------|1**!:,,,,,,,,:,:::::::::::;::,,::::;;-;:::-;::,,.
:;+|14#@@1|||1221!|+;----;;-+!222|:,,:::,::,,::::,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,:;::,:;;;:,,,,
:;;-|13##3++-+|||||-;;;;-++|!!!+::::::::::,:,,,,,,.,,.,,,,,,,,,,::,,,:;;;:,,,..
::;-|12321|-------;::::;;;----;::::;;;:;::,,,,,,,,,.,...,,,,,,,::::::;;;:,,....
,:;-|!!!||||-;;;;;:;;;;;;;;::::;;;;;:::::::,,,,,,.,....,....,,,,,::;;;;::,,....
.,::;----++++-;:;;;:::::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,.,..,,,,,,,,,,,,:::;;;:::,.... .
..,,::;;;;;;---;;::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,..,,,,,,,,,,:::;;;:::,,,.     
...,,:::;;;;;;;;-;;::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::;;:::,,.....     
 ...,,,:::::;;;;;----;::::::::,,,,,,,...,,...,,,... ...,.,,,,,,,,....          
  ....,,,,,:::;;;;-------;;::::::,,,,....                                      
  .......,,,,:::;;;;;;;;;::,,,,,,,,....   .                                    
    ......,,,,,,,::::,,,..............                                         
     ... ............     . . .                                                
      .                                                                        

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


