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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 28 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 93 0:33:17 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                28 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 332, 11/28/93
10.7 FLUX=093    90-AVG=094        SSN=075      BKI=0001 2111  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=6.0E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1101 2211  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=004,004,004,009,012,008,006,006   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B7.4   @ 0103UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 0501UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1945UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0835UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1125UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1340UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 0047UT   BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 1911UT  BOUTF-AVG=55354NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+073,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1754UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-058NT@ 1036UT  G6-AVG=+095,+017,-031
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,018,051/010,025,070
    KFCST=1112 3334 3344 3334  27DAY-AP=008,004   27DAY-KP=2222 3232 2121 1211
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJSTRM;*AURMIDWRN
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 27 NOV 93 was  42.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 27 NOV 93 are: 2o 1+ 0+ 0o   1+ 2- 1+ 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. A single B-class subflare
       occurred. New Regions 7624 (N03E13) and 7625 (S14E14) were
       numbered. Region 7625 showed gradual growth during the day.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7625 could produce an isolated C-class
       subflare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the
       past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly unsettled levels during the first
       day. Coronal hole effects are expected to increase activity to
       active levels during the second day, then major storm levels
       on the final day. Brief periods of severe storming could occur
       late in the period as well.

            Event probabilities 29 nov-01 dec

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 29 nov-01 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/20
                        Minor Storm           15/15/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/40

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/20
                        Minor Storm           20/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/50

            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  Conditions will continue near-normal on 29 November
       and should remain near-normal for a fair portion of 30
       November, although signal degradation over the high and polar
       latitude paths will begin to affect communications on these
       higher latitude paths.  Very poor to occasionally useless
       propagation is expected on 01 and 02 December (with emphasis on
       01 December) in response to the anticipated major geomagnetic
       storm.  Middle latitudes are expected to see fair to
       occasionally very poor propagation with strongest signal
       degradation occuring during the local night and sunrise
       sectors.  If recurrence is any indication, full recovery from
       this disturbance will not likely be observed for at least 2 to
       4 days after the geomagnetic storming ends (on 02 or
       03 December).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7620  N03W68  270  0210 CAO  09  008 BETA
7622  N13W20  222  0010 AXX  03  004 ALPHA
7623  S10E41  161  0020 CRO  01  002 BETA
7624  N03E13  189  0020 BXO  03  005 BETA
7625  S14E14  188  0020 CRO  03  006 BETA
7621  S09W56  258                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 NOVEMBER TO 01 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
27 Nov: 0109  0117  0126  B2.5                                         
        0219  0223  0229  B2.2                                         
        0336  0339  0343  B1.7                                         
        0348  0412  0438  B3.0                                         
        0546  0552  0559  B2.1                                         
        1251  1254  1258  B1.5                                         
        2042  2049  2054  B3.2                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    007  (100.0)

 Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          C

