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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 27 Nov 93 20:56:02 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                27 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 331, 11/27/93
10.7 FLUX=090    90-AVG=094        SSN=055      BKI=2100 0112  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=A8.5     FLU1=4.2E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2100 1212  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=017,008,003,003,004,007,007,016   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.2   @ 2049UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.8   @ 1813UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2305UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1025UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1400UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1310UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55364NT @ 0316UT   BOUTF-MIN=55345NT @ 1931UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+063,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 2002UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-058NT@ 1117UT  G6-AVG=+085,+017,-032
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,018/010,010,030
    KFCST=2223 3222 2223 3222  27DAY-AP=007,008   27DAY-KP=1132 2223 2222 3232
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 NOV 93 was  44.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 26 NOV 93 are: 2o 2- 1+ 2-   2o 3- 4o 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Several B-class x-ray bursts
       occurred, none of which were optically correlated. All sunspot
       regions appeared to be stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7620 (N04W53) could produce an isolated
       C-class subflare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the
       past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during the first
       two days. Activity will increase to active to minor storm
       levels on the final day due to coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 28 nov-30 nov

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 nov-30 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/15

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/20

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions will persist through 29 November inclusive.
       Minor signal degradation is expected on 30 November for
       transpolar and transauroral paths as a recurrent coronal-hole-
       related disturbance begins to arrive.  Stronger and more
       widespread ionospheric activity is expected to take effect on
       01 and/or 02 December.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7620  N03W53  268  0190 EAO  12  017 BETA
7622  N12W07  222  0010 BXO  03  005 BETA
7623  S12E54  161  0030 CSO  06  003 BETA
7621  S09W43  258                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 NOVEMBER TO 30 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
51   N70E87 S10E47 N15E01 N70E87  190  EXT   POS   049 10830A
52   S05E02 S12W02 S12W15 S01W02  226  ISO   NEG   004 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
26 Nov: 0049  0104  0125  B3.7                                         
        0159  0203  0205  B3.8                                         
        0720  0725  0729  B4.0  SF  7622  N12E17                       
        1117  1130  1142  B3.8                                         
        1150  1211  1212  B4.3                                         
        1320  1325  1328  B5.6                                         
        1558  1605  1608  C2.1  SF  7623  S09E75                       
        1702  1712  1721  C1.2  SF  7620  N04W38                       
        1958  2003  2007  B4.2  SF  7620  N02W43                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7620:  1   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (22.2)
  Region 7622:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (11.1)
  Region 7623:  1   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (11.1)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    005  (55.6)

 Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


