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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 25 Nov 93 23:22:22 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                25 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 329, 11/25/93
10.7 FLUX=097.2  90-AVG=094        SSN=061      BKI=1111 1112  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B1.9     FLU1=2.1E+06  FLU10=1.5E+04  PKI=2110 2223  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=008,008,006,006,005,008,007,016   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.7   @ 0622UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.5   @ 2223UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.8
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1205UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2100UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1335UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1400UT    PCA-AVG= +0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55366NT @ 1457UT   BOUTF-MIN=55347NT @ 1926UT  BOUTF-AVG=55358NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+085,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+154NT@ 1711UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-054NT@ 1001UT  G6-AVG=+106,+016,-027
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,088,088;SESC:090,088,088 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,007/010,010,010
    KFCST=2233 3222 2233 3222  27DAY-AP=010,005   27DAY-KP=3322 3222 2121 2122
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0224-1501UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 24 NOV 93 was  42.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 24 NOV 93 are: 2- 2- 1- 1o   2- 1+ 2- 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low with many C-class flares
       observed. The largest was a C5 at 25/0621Z that was optically
       uncorrelated. The likely source was Region 7620 (N05W25) that
       produced six other small C-class flares. Region 7620 ceased the
       growth exhibited on 24 Nov. Some mixed polarities remained in
       the center of the Region. The coronal hole that caused the
       geomagnetic storm on 04-07 Nov is again visible in the eastern
       hemisphere. It is as large as last rotation and similar in
       shape.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       at a generally low level. An isolated low M-class flare from
       Region 7620 is possible.

            The geomagnetic field remained quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be quiet to slightly unsettled for the duration of
       the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 26 nov-28 nov

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 nov-28 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           01/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           01/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  No changes are anticipated over the next 72 hours.
       The coronal hole-related disturbance noted above is not
       expected until about 01 or 02 December (with emphasis presently
       placed on 02 December).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7620  N05W26  267  0230 ESI  12  033 BETA
7622  N13E21  220  0040 CSO  06  008 BETA
7621  S09W17  258                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 NOVEMBER TO 28 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
49   N35W63 N20W73 N22W83 N38W73  319  ISO   POS   005 10830A
51   N60E87 S12E49 N10E32 N60E87  189  EXT   POS   057 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
24 Nov: 0105  0112  0121  B3.9                                         
        0443  0457  0505  B4.0                                         
        0600  0606  0610  B7.8                                         
        0626  0633  0649  B5.7  SF  7620  N04W02                       
       B0747 U0753 A0809        SF  7620  N05W01                       
        0940  0948  1001  B5.6                                         
        1156  1201  1205  B9.0                                         
        1313  1319  1321  B6.4                                         
        1341  1407  1433  C1.2  SF  7622  N12E36                       
        1644  1648  1652  B4.9                                         
        1848  1854  1859  C1.0  SF  7618  N06W82                       
        2005  2009  2013  B5.6                                         
        2050  2053  2100        SF  7622  N13E34                       
        2203  2222  2232  C1.4  SF  7620  N04W11                       
        2259  2301  2303  B7.3                                         
        2339  2343  2346  B8.4  SF  7620  N04W11                       
        2357  0000  0005        SF  7620  N04W11                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  1   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 5.9)
  Region 7620:  1   0   0     5   0   0   0   0    005  (29.4)
  Region 7622:  1   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (11.8)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    009  (52.9)

 Total Events: 017 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
24 Nov: 0105  0112  0121  B3.9                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


