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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 24 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 25 Nov 93 11:35:36 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                24 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 328, 11/24/93
10.7 FLUX=100.0  90-AVG=094        SSN=078      BKI=2200 0001  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B2.5     FLU1=8.6E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2211 2121  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=010,010,004,004,004,004,004,008   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.4   @ 2223UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.8   @ 0241UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.8
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2150UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1050UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2325UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1330UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55361NT @ 2358UT   BOUTF-MIN=55343NT @ 1927UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+078,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+130NT@ 1804UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-058NT@ 1126UT  G6-AVG=+098,+017,-031
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,090,088;SESC:095,090,088 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/015,010,010
    KFCST=3443 3222 2233 3222  27DAY-AP=016,010   27DAY-KP=3344 3234 3322 3222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 23 NOV 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 23 NOV 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low due to a C1 flare from Region 7618
       (N06W85) at 1854UT. Region 7620 (N05W10) nearly doubled in size
       during the period and produced frequent B-class flares. Some
       mixed polarities are visible in the Region as is an arch
       filament system which bodes well for further growth. Region
       7622 (N13E36) was stable with infrequent fluctuations.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should be low
       with Region 7622 producing the bulk of the C-class flares.
       Continued growth in 7620 will make M-class flares more
       likely.

            The geomagnetic field remained quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be generally unsettled for 24 nov. Quiet to unsettled
       conditions should be experienced on 25 and 26 nov.

            Event probabilities 25 nov-27 nov

                             Class M    25/30/30
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 nov-27 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       The coronal-hole related disturbance did not materialize.
       Conditions are expected to continue normal over all regions.
       There is an increasing chance for isolated SWFs (short-wave
       fadeouts) due to possible minor flaring from developing
       Region 7620 over daylit paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N06W86  340  0210 DAO  05  009 BETA
7620  N05W11  265  0230 ESI  11  028 BETA
7622  N13E34  220  0080 CAO  06  011 BETA
7621  S09W04  258                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 25 NOVEMBER TO 27 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7613 S12   155


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1527 1528 1529                         2500


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
49   N48W38 N20W63 N25W71 N50W43  312  ISO   POS   009 10830A
51   N30E67 S20E62 N10E45 N30E55  201  ISO   POS   019 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
23 Nov: 0813  0818  0824  B3.3  SF  7618  N04W61                       
        1132  1139  1146  B5.2                                         
        1201  1205  1208  B3.8  SF  7622  N15E55                       
        1630  1635  1644  B2.7  SF  7620  N03E04                       
        1832  1838  1847  B4.0                                         
        2234  2238  2244        SF  7620  N03E03                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (16.7)
  Region 7620:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (33.3)
  Region 7622:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (16.7)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (33.3)

 Total Events: 006 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


