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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 23 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 23 Nov 93 20:54:50 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                23 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 327, 11/23/93
10.7 FLUX=100.4  90-AVG=094        SSN=069      BKI=2210 1221  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B1.5     FLU1=7.9E+05  FLU10=1.4E+04  PKI=2211 2221  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=010,012,006,004,009,013,016,006   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.2   @ 1140UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.4   @ 1553UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1805UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2255UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1415UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2155UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55358NT @ 2322UT   BOUTF-MIN=55334NT @ 1841UT  BOUTF-AVG=55352NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+133NT@ 1750UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-060NT@ 1025UT  G6-AVG=+096,+017,-031
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,097,091;SESC:100,097,091 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,005/015,010,007
    KFCST=3334 4222 3322 3222  27DAY-AP=041,016   27DAY-KP=4466 6433 3344 3234
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:1900-2050UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 22 NOV 93 was  38.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 22 NOV 93 are: 1+ 2- 1o 1-   1+ 2- 2- 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Minor B-class flares were
       observed from the three spotted regions on the disk. Region
       7620 (N05E03) continued slow growth. Region 7618 (N06W71)
       continued its slow decline. A small filament located near
       N11E55 faded between 23/1557-1702Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is forecast to be
       low. Infrequent C-class flares are expected from Regions 7618,
       7620, and 7622 (N14E48).

            The geomagnetic field remained quiet. The forecast coronal
       hole disturbance did not appear on schedule.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should become unsettled to slightly active on 24 Nov in
       response to the end of the coronal hole stream. The field
       should then become quiet to slightly unsettled for the
       remainder of the period.

            Event probabilities 24 nov-26 nov

                             Class M    20/20/15
                             Class X    05/05/01
                             Proton     05/05/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 nov-26 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/15
                        Minor Storm           15/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/25/20
                        Minor Storm           15/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  The anticipated coronal-hole-related disturbance did
       not materialize on 23 November as expected.  Yohkoh x-ray
       imagery shows that the equatorward boundary of the hole has
       retreated northward and hence should be less geoeffective than
       it has been on previous rotations.  If this is the case,
       conditions may become only mildly degraded over the high and
       polar latitude paths on 24 November.  There is a chance this
       disturbance may not materialize at all, which would result in
       generally near-normal propagation through at least 26 November
       inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N06W72  339  0340 DAI  06  012 BETA
7620  N05E02  265  0120 DSO  10  021 BETA
7622  N14E47  220  0080 DAO  07  008 BETA
7621  S09E09  258                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 24 NOVEMBER TO 26 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7613 S12   155


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
23/B1557             B1702       N11E55   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
22 Nov: 0307  0312  0315  B3.9                                         
        0417  0428  0445  B6.6                                         
        0452  0456  0511        SF  7618  N09W47                       
        0607  0612  0624  B2.7                                         
        0953  0958  1004  B2.9                                         
        1025  1034  1037  C1.0                                         
        1446  1452  1500  B2.5                                         
        2321  2333  0004  B3.7                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (12.5)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    007  (87.5)

 Total Events: 008 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
22 Nov: 0307  0312  0315  B3.9                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


