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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 22 Nov 93 20:53:47 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                22 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 326, 11/22/93
10.7 FLUX=099.3  90-AVG=094        SSN=075      BKI=2110 1211  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=5.7E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1211 1222  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=010,009,008,004,008,010,008,009   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.0   @ 1035UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 1547UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0955UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1310UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1155UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2125UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55358NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 1923UT  BOUTF-AVG=55352NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+079,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 1749UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-060NT@ 1053UT  G6-AVG=+098,+017,-034
 FLUXFCST=STD:099,099,096;SESC:099,099,096 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,010,010/025,015,010
    KFCST=4455 5333 3334 4222  27DAY-AP=014,041   27DAY-KP=2132 2434 4466 6433
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 21 NOV 93 was  31.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 21 NOV 93 are: 2- 2- 1+ 2-   2- 2- 2- 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low due to a single C1 flare at
       22/1034Z from an unknown source. The delta configuration in
       Region 7618 (N07W59) faded. Region 7622 (N13E17) showed itself
       as a small D-class group. Region 7620 (N05E17) stabilized as a
       small D-class group.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should be mostly
       low. An isolated M-class flare remains possible from Region
       7618 and to a lesser degree from Region 7622.

       STD: Moderate Ca XV emissions and strong Fe XIV and Fe X
       emissions were associated with the passage of Region 7622 onto
       the disk over the weekend.  Associated coronal plots and maps
       are available through anonymous ftp at: ftp.uleth.ca in the
       directories "pub/solar/Corona/Scans" and "pub/solar/Corona/Maps".
       A full-disk Yohkoh x-ray image has been appended to this
       report, taken at approximately 03:10 UTC on 22 November.

            The geomagnetic field remained quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should become generally active on 23 Nov due to a favorably
       positioned coronal hole. This disturbance is expected to
       continue into the early hours of 24 Nov. Generally unsettled
       conditions are forecast for the remainder of 24 Nov and all
       of 25 Nov.

            Event probabilities 23 nov-25 nov

                             Class M    25/25/25
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 nov-25 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/25/20
                        Minor Storm           20/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/35/30
                        Minor Storm           20/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Minor signal degradation is expected over transpolar and
       transauroral paths over the next 24 hours.  Conditions should
       return to near-normal by 25 November.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N07W58  339  0350 DAI  07  026 BETA
7620  N05E16  265  0070 DSO  07  014 BETA
7622  N13E59  222  0060 DAO  08  005 BETA
7621  S09E22  259                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 NOVEMBER TO 25 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7613 S12   155


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 2009 2009 2010                          620


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
22/2321      2333  23/0004                LDE    B3.7   43


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
21 Nov: 1028  1031  1041  B2.5                                         
        1047  1103  1125  B8.2                                         
        2058  2107  2114  B6.4                                         
        2202  2212  2224  B3.6  SF  7620  N02E39                       
        2340  2347  2357  B3.5                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7620:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (20.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (80.0)

 Total Events: 005 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     22 November 1993, 03:10 UTC

                                    North
                                         ..         ...,,,,,,... .
             .......        .           .,,,.....,,:::;::::::,,,.......        
   ...........,,,,,,,,,.....            ..,,,,,,,,,,:::::;;:::,,,,.......      
 ........,.,,,,,::;;::,,,.,,.....        .......,,,,,,,,,,,:;;;:::,,,.....     
 .,,,,,,,,,::::;;:,,,::,,,,,,,,,,...      ............,,,,,,,:;;;::::,,,,.. .  
.,,,,:::::;;;--;;::,,,,::,:,:::,,...        .........,,,::::::::;;;;;:::,,.....
.,,:::;;----+-;;::::,,,,,,:::,,,,,... ..        ..,,,,,,::;;;;;;::;--;;;::,,,,.
,:::;;-+++|+-;;;;;:::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.        ..,,:::;;-;;;;:::;----;:::,,,
,:;;;;-++!!|-;;;;;;::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,.        .,::;;-+++-;;;;;-++--;:::,,
,:;;--+|!11!|-;;;;:::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,....  ..,,:;-|!!|++++----+--;::,,
,:;;-++!1321!+-;;::::::,,,,::,::::::,,,,.....,,,,::,,,,;||;;|121|||+-|+++--;::,
,;-++|!3@@41|+-;;-;;;;;::::::;;;;;;:::,,,,..,,,,,,::::::;;;;-!211!!|++|++++-;;:
:;;-+|!2431!++--|+---;;;;--;-----;:::,,,,,,..,,,,,;;:;;;;;;;-+14*42!++-+|++-;;:
:;-+||||||+--;;-++--++|11!|+-;;;::,,,,,.....,,,,,,:::::::::;-+2@@*2!+---+|+--;;
:;;--++++--;;::;-++-;!2*4!-;;;:;::,,.,....,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::;-+!*#41+---;-|++--;
:;;;----;;;::,,::;;::;--;;:::;:,,,.,.......,:,,,,,,,,,,,,::;-||!!!!-;;;;;+++--;
:::;;;-;::::,.,,,,:::::::,,,,,..........,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::;-+++---;;--|+++-;
,::;;;--::::,...,::-|+:,,,,,,,...........,::,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::::;-+----+|++--;
,::;;-+!;:,,,.....,:|!:,,,,............,.,:,..,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::,::;;;;;;+++---;
::;;;-+!!:,,..,,,,,,,,,.........,,..,,,.,,,..,,,:::,,,....,.,,,,:-1;;;-+++---;;
::;;;;-+|-,,,,,,,,,,,,...................,,,,:,,,::,.....,,.,,,:::--;;++---;;::
,,::::::;-;:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,...........,..,,,.............,,:;;---++-;;::,,.
.,,,,::::;-;:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,..........,..................,,,:::;-+--;::,,...
....,,,:;;---;,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,.................,............,,,::;-;;:::,...  
....,,::::;;;--;::,,,,,,,,....,..........................  ....,;;;:::,,,..    
 ...,,,,,,:::;;;-;;::,,,,,,,,.,,..,...............    .    ..,:::::,,....      
 .......,,,,:::;;;;;;:,,,....       ..........           .,::;;::,,,,...       
  . ......,,,,:::;;;;;;:,.                           .::;;;;::::,,,,....       
  . .......,,,,:::::::::::::,,...               .,,::;;:::::::,,,,,...         
    ......................,,,,,...........,....,,,:::::,,,,,,......            
                                                  ...........                  

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


