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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 22 Nov 93 10:35:54 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                21 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 325, 11/21/93
10.7 FLUX=097    90-AVG=094        SSN=078      BKI=2221 1111  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B1.1     FLU1=3.1E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2212 2221  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=011,010,013,009,009,009,006,007   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B8.2   @ 1103UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 1530UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.7
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2300UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0805UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2330UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55360NT @ 0130UT   BOUTF-MIN=55337NT @ 1952UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1730UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-066NT@ 1048UT  G6-AVG=+093,+019,-036
 FLUXFCST=STD:098,098,096;SESC:098,098,096 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,010/015,030,015
    KFCST=1223 3344 4455 5333  27DAY-AP=029,014   27DAY-KP=2235 6533 2132 2434
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 NOV 93 was  32.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 20 NOV 93 are: 3+ 4- 1+ 1+   2o 2- 2- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7618 (N08W44)
       continued a slow decline and the delta may fade by tomorrow.
       Region 7620 (N05E31) emerged at a moderate pace. New Region
       7622 (N13E72) showed a small H-class spot in a broad plage
       field. In x-rays, this region is moderately large and bright.
       An eruptive prominence occurred between 21/1500-1600Z at S26W90
       and reached 0.21R above the limb. Yohkoh images show a coronal
       hole in the northwest quadrant. The hole is slightly smaller
       than last rotation.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should be at
       generally low levels for the forecast period. Region 7618 is
       still capable of producing an isolated M-class flare but
       this possibility is less than in previous days.

       STD: Another Yohkoh image has been appended to this report.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be generally unsettled on 22 Nov. Active to minor
       storm conditions are forecast for 23 Nov in response to a
       favorably positioned coronal hole. The field should return
       to generally unsettled levels on 24 Nov.

            Event probabilities 22 nov-24 nov

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 nov-24 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/35/25
                        Minor Storm           10/20/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/40/35
                        Minor Storm           15/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions can be expected on 22 November before
       effects of the coronal hole are noticed on 23 November.  Minor
       signal degradation is expected on transpolar and transauroral
       circuits.  Signal degradation may also migrate into the upper-
       middle latitude regions during the local evening hours.  The
       ionosphere should begin to recover to near-normal over these
       higher latitude regions on 24 November.  All other regions
       should not see any significant signal degradation.  Propagation
       should continue essentially near-normal with somewhat elevated
       levels of night-sector fading and absorption.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N08W45  339  0470 DKI  08  030 BETA-DELTA
7620  N05E30  264  0030 BXO  06  006 BETA
7621  S09E35  259  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7622  N13E71  223  0040 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 NOVEMBER TO 24 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
21/B1502             B1550       S26W90   EPL


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
50   S10E57 S12E49 S04E49 N02E52  246  ISO   NEG   002 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
20 Nov: 0014  0032  0040  C5.2                                         
        0338  0403  0444  C1.3  SF  7618  N08W20                       
        0952  0958  1006  B2.7                                         
        1935  2011  2036  B5.7                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  1   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (25.0)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (75.0)

 Total Events: 004 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
20 Nov: 0014  0032  0040  C5.2                     EPL

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     21 November 1993, 03:00 UTC

                                    North
                                                    ............ .
            . ....                   .,,,,,.......,,:::::::::,,,......         
  ....   .....,,,,,,,,....           .,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::;;::::,,,......       
.....,......,,,:::;::,,,.....         .....,,,.,,,,,.,,,,,::;;:::,,,,...       
..,,,,,:::,,::::;;:::,,,,,,...         ...........,..,,,,,,,,::;;::::,,,... .  
.,,:::::;;;:;;;;:,:::,:,,,,,,.  Coronal  .......,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,:;;;;:::,,,.....
,:::;;;;;;----;::,,,,,,,.,,,,.    Hole   . ..,,,,,::::;::::::,::::;-;;;::,,,,,.
::;;;----+++-;;:::,,,.....,,,.. ..          .,,:::::;;-;;;;;::::::::---;;:::,,,
::;;--+|||+-;;;:::,::,,,,.,,......           .,,::;--+++----;;;::::;;----;;::,,
,:;;-+|11!+;-;:::,:::,,,,,,..............     .,,::;-+|!|+++---;;;;;;;----;;::,
::;;+|1231+;;::::,,,,,,:,,,,...... . ....,,,..,,:-|-;;|121||+---;;;;;;--+--;;::
:;-+!24@*!+;;:::,,::::::::,,..,... ....,,,,,:::::;-;:;-1321!!|+---;;:;;;++--;;:
;;-|!1241++++-;:::::;:;;:,::,..........,,,,;::::::::;;-+134431---;;;;;-;-++--;;
:;-||!!|+-+++-;---+;:::::::,,..........,,,,-:::::::::;-+2@@@41|---;;;-+--+++-;;
:;-++||+;;-+--;|!3-:::,:::,,............,,,,,,,,,,::;;+|1*@#3|------;----+++--;
:;;----;::;;;;:;;;:,,,,,,,.......,,,,,,,.,,.,,,,,,::;;|!!11!||+-;;;;;;;;;++++-;
,:::;;-;:,,,:::,,.,................,,,.....,,,,,,,,:::;-+|||--;;::::;;;;;+++--;
,:::;;-;,..;--+|:,........ ................,,,,,,,,;,:::::;;;----;;;;;;-++++-;;
,::;;;--,...::;!;,...........,,,,........,,,,,...,,,,:,,,,,::;+-;:;-;;--++--;;:
,::;;;--;..,:,,,,.,..........,,,,,....,,,,:,,,......,,,,,,,:::::::;;;--++--;;::
,::;;;;--;,,,,,,.,,,,..,,.  ......,..,-,.,::,.......,..,,,,:::::;;;;;;-++--;:::
,,:::;;;;;:,,,,,,,,,,,,,... .........,,,,.............,,:,,,::;;;;;::-|+--;;;::
.,,,,::,:::;:,,:,:,,,,,,........,..,.,,...............,,,,,,:::;-;;;-+++--;;::,
....,,,,,::;;;:::,,,,,,,,..........,............. ... ..,,,,,:::::;+++---;;::,,
 .....,,,::;;;;:,,,,,,......,,,.,................     .......,,,:;;;;;;;::,,,,.
   .....,,:::;;;;;::,,,,,.....,,,,..........  ..        .    ,:;;;:::::,,,.....
    .....,,,:::;;;;;:,,..       ....... ..    .          ..::;;;::,,,,..... .  
    ..  ....,,,,::::;;;,..                            .,:;-;;;:::,,,,,....     
         . ...,,,,:::,,,,::,...                 ..,,:;;;;;;;::::,,,,,,..       
          .......................,,,..........,,:::::::::::,,,,,,.....         
                                  .. .         ...,,,,,,,,.......              
                                                      ..... .                  

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


