From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Sun Nov 21 06:55:40 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA02396
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Sun, 21 Nov 1993 06:55:38 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA04964; Sun, 21 Nov 1993 06:53:28 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA04944; Sun, 21 Nov 1993 06:52:20 +0200
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA20917; Sat, 20 Nov 93 21:51:56 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9311210451.AA20917@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 20 Nov 93 21:51:52 MST
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1143
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                20 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 324, 11/20/93
10.7 FLUX=100.5  90-AVG=094        SSN=058      BKI=3312 1221  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B1.5     FLU1=3.7E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3411 2222  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=021,026,006,012,009,010,010,007   DEV-AVG=012 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.2   @ 0032UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 1919UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.0
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0945UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1145UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1215UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1900UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55364NT @ 0231UT   BOUTF-MIN=55346NT @ 1952UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+066,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1836UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-070NT@ 0951UT  G6-AVG=+087,+019,-038
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,110,110;SESC:105,110,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,020/012,015,035
    KFCST=1115 4000 1112 2111  27DAY-AP=009,029   27DAY-KP=4222 1221 2235 6533
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0613-0817UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 NOV 93 was  25.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 19 NOV 93 are: 3+ 6- 2- 2o   3- 4- 3- 3o



SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  Region 7618 (N07W31) remains the
       most impressive area on the disk.  In white light, the region
       has decreased in area and spot number, but still retains its
       beta-delta configuration.  New Region 7621 (S09E48) was
       numbered overnight.  An area of interest to watch is on the
       east limb at N12 where an impressive bright surge was reported
       by Learmonth last night.  All other areas/regions were stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate with Region 7618 the most likely candidate to
       produce C and M-class activity.  A new, active region may rotate
       into view over the next few days and could also contribute to
       activity.

       STD: X-ray imagery from the Yohkoh satellite showed a fairly
       strong and bright loop system at about 02:50 UTC from the
       region just beyond the east limb. A Yohkoh full-disk x-ray
       image showing the enhanced northeast limb emissions has been
       appended to this report.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly unsettled levels.
       Since 09Z, the middle latitude field has been at quiet levels.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at mostly unsettled levels for the first two
       days of the period with active to minor storm conditions
       expected early on day three due to a favorably located coronal
       hole.  The disturbance is expected to last only one day with
       levels forecasted to decrease to mostly unsettled thereafter.

            Event probabilities 21 nov-23 nov

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 nov-23 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/35
                        Minor Storm           10/10/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/40
                        Minor Storm           10/15/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/15

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low
       and middle latitude paths.  High and polar latitude paths
       experienced additional periods of below-normal propagation due
       primarily to periods of enhanced geomagnetic and auroral
       activity within the auroral zone.  Conditions improved notably
       by the end of the day.  Propagation conditions are expected to
       continue near-normal over the next 48 hours (through about
       22 November inclusive).  Activity could become gradually
       enhanced during the latter half of 22 November.  On
       23 November, a recurrent coronal hole is expected to increase
       levels of geophysical activity to near-storm levels which
       is expected to cause below-normal (poor to occasionally very
       poor) propagation for transpolar and transauroral paths.
       Middle-latitude night-sector paths may also be affected on
       22 November.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N08W31  338  0580 DKI  08  026 BETA-DELTA
7620  N04E43  264  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7621  S10E49  258  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 NOVEMBER TO 23 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
20/ 0338     0403     0444       N08W20   LDE    C1.3   66


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
48   S42W53 S44W61 S09W90 S09W90  023  ISO   NEG   010 10830A
49   N30E05 N18W04 N25W13 N38W05  316  ISO   POS   005 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
19 Nov: 0337  0342  0344  B3.1  SF  7618  N09W07                       
        0359  0404  0408  B3.2                                         
        0710  0759  0828  B8.9                                         
        1845  2004  2051  B9.8                                         
       B2007 U2009 A2015        SF  7618  N12W12                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (40.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (60.0)

 Total Events: 005 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     20 November 1993, 02:50 UTC

                                    North
    ..   .     . .                  .....         ................
 ..................              .,,,,,,,,......,,:::::::::,:,,,......         
.....,...,,,,,,::,,,,,..,..      .,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::::;;::::,,,,.....       
.,,,,::,,,,,:::::;;;:,,,... ..........,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,::;;;;::,,,.....      
,,::::;::::::::;;;;:::,.. ... ..........,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,:::::::,,,....    
::::;;;;;;;;;;;;;::::::,......   ...,,,,:,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,::;;;:::,,,,.....
:;;;----------;::::,,::,,,.....  .,.,,::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,:::;;;;;:::,,,,..
;;--+++++|++-;:::,,,::,,,,..  . . ....,:::;;;;---;;;;::,:,,,:,:::::;--;;;::,,,.
;--++||||||-;;:::;:,,,,,,... ...., . ..,::;;-+++++---;;:::::::::;:;:;-+-;;;::,,
-+++|!111!+-;;;;::::,,,,,,............,,,,:;-+|!!!|++---;;;;;;;;;;;;;;-+--;:::,
|!124*##4|+--;;;:::::,,,,.,:,,,,,,,,.,,,:+!!+;-!221!!|----;;;;;;;---;;;---;;;::
13*@@@@@4|+----;;;:::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::;+-;;-1432!!|++---;;;;;;;;;;;;+++-;;:
4*#@@@@@1|++----;-;:::,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::;;;;--!24**32++++--;;;;--;;;;;+!|+-;;
123*#@@3!!!|||--;;;;:,,,,,.,,,,,,,,--:::::::;;-+!4@@@*!|++----;;-++--;;;-||+--;
||!1233|||2!3+-;;;;;:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::;-++|1#@#2|+-------;--------+||++--
--+++||---++-;::::;;:,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::;-+|!112!|+------;;;;;;;;--+-|++---
;;;----;;;;;;::::,:::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::;;-+||||||+;;;;--;;;-----+---+++--;
:;;;---;;;+-:::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,:::::;;-;;;;;;;-;;;;----++||+--++--;;
:::;;;--:;+|::::;;:,,::,::,,.,,,,:,,.,,,.,,,,,,:::::;;-+-;;;;----;-+||-;+|+-;;;
,:::;;;-;:::,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,..,,,,:::,,......,,,,,,:::;;;::::;-;;-+|+;:-||+-;;;
,,::;;;;-;::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,.....,..,,,,:;;:::::;;----;:,:;||+--;;:
,,:::;;;;-;::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,............,,,,,,,,:;;;;;;;;::,,:;||++-;;;:
.,,,::;;;;-;:;::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,..............,,,,,,,:,:::;;;;:,,,:-++++--;;::
..,,,::::;;;--:::::,,,....,,.,...,...............,,,,,,,,::::::,,:;+++---;;;::,
...,,,:::::;;;;;::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,...........  . ..,,,,,..,,,....,;-----;;:::,,,
 ....,,,,:::;;;--;::,,,,,,.,,,,,.........         .... .. ..,.,;;;;;;;:::,,,,..
   .....,,,:::;;;;;::....   ..,,.....               .......:;-;;;:::::,,,,.....
    ........,,,,:::::::,,       .              .    . .,:;----;::::::,,,.....  
      . .......,,,,,,,,,,,,,...                  ..,:;;----;;;;::::,,,,...     
            ..............,,,................,,,::::;;;;;:::::::,,,,....       
                      .. ..           .. ...  .  ...,,,,,,,,,,,,....           
                                                    ...........                

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


