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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 19 Nov 93 21:27:51 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                19 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 323, 11/19/93
10.7 FLUX=101.1  90-AVG=094        SSN=059      BKI=3622 2333  BAI=020
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=9.4E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=3622 3433  PAI=020
  BOU-DEV=031,154,013,017,015,029,023,021   DEV-AVG=037 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B9.8   @ 2003UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 1737UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2320UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1745UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2000UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55375NT @ 0358UT   BOUTF-MIN=55334NT @ 1842UT  BOUTF-AVG=55350NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+063,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1654UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-072NT@ 1044UT  G6-AVG=+087,+019,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,110;SESC:105,105,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,015/010,012,015
    KFCST=2233 3221 2233 4321  27DAY-AP=010,009   27DAY-KP=2342 2232 4222 1221
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0622-0733UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 NOV 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 18 NOV 93 are: 2- 1- 1o 1o   4+ 5+ 4o 3+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  Region 7618 (N07W19) continues
       to be the most impressive region on the disk.  Overall, the
       Region has been stable the past 24 hours.  Region 7620 (N04E57)
       appears stable as well.

       STD: A delta configuration continues to exist in Region 7618.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate with Region 7618 expected to produce C-class
       and possibly M-class activity.

       STD: A new region is approaching the northeast limb.  Recent
       Yohkoh x-ray imagery of this area suggests a possible eruptive
       region may be rotating into view shortly.  This supposition is
       strengthened by NSO observations of enhanced (moderate) Ca XV
       limb emissions at this region.  NSO plots of these emissions,
       as well as pseudo-full-disk maps are available at the anonymous
       FTP site: ftp.uleth.ca (previously known as xi.uleth.ca) in the
       directories "pub/solar/Corona/Scans" and "pub/solar/Corona/Maps".
       There may be some additional Ca XV emission intensification
       over the next 24 hours from this area of the northeast limb.
       Recent optically uncorrelated long-decay B and C-class x-ray
       activity may be originating from this site.  Another Yohkoh
       x-ray insert has been appended to this report showing this new
       limb source of x-ray emissions.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm
       levels at middle latitudes and quiet to severe storm levels
       at high latitudes.  Yesterday's disturbance continued through
       06Z today with active to storm level conditions.  Since then,
       the field has been mostly quiety to active with some brief storm
       levels at high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled.  Recurrence effects may
       increase activity sometime late on day three.

            Event probabilities 20 nov-22 nov

                             Class M    60/60/60
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 nov-22 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/10/45
                        Minor Storm           10/05/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/10/65
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/20/01

            HF propagation conditions became occasionally below-normal
       for the upper-middle to polar latitude paths during the local
       night sector of 19 November.  Most other regions experienced
       near-normal propagation.  Conditions are expected to gradually
       improve on 20 and 21 November.  Additional minor signal
       degradation may be observed again over the higher latitude
       paths on 21 November in response to recurrent activity.  At the
       present time, no significant changes are expected over the next
       three days.  SWF activity is still a good possibility over
       sunlit paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N07W19  339  0750 DKI  09  038 BETA-DELTA
7620  N04E57  263  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 NOVEMBER TO 22 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1625 1625 1626                          280


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
19/ 1845     2004     2051                LDE    B9.8  126


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
48   S34W42 S37W62 S08W74 S07W70  024  ISO   NEG   012 10830A
49   N30E18 N20E08 N30E04 N34E11  316  ISO   POS   003 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
18 Nov: 0349  0358  0404  B7.3                                         
        1135  1230  1303  B5.1  SF  7618  N08E02                       
        1323  1332  1347  C1.6  SF  7618  N09E01                       
        1522  1525  1538        SF  7618  N07W03                       
        1654  1659  1707  C1.5                                         
        1658  1658  1710        SF  7618  N06W03                       
        1928  2115  2155  C1.4                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  1   0   0     4   0   0   0   0    004  (57.1)
Uncorrellated:  2   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (42.9)

 Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  

