From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Fri Nov 19 06:32:57 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA03682
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Fri, 19 Nov 1993 06:32:55 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA21650; Fri, 19 Nov 1993 06:29:52 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA21591; Fri, 19 Nov 1993 06:27:27 +0200
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA10665; Thu, 18 Nov 93 21:27:01 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9311190427.AA10665@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 18 Nov 93 21:26:56 MST
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1139
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                18 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 322, 11/18/93
10.7 FLUX=102.6  90-AVG=094        SSN=056      BKI=2110 4543  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=7.6E+05  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2111 4543  PAI=018
  BOU-DEV=015,007,006,004,060,118,053,039   DEV-AVG=037 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.6   @ 1332UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 1829UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1440UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1515UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.8%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1415UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55367NT @ 1304UT   BOUTF-MIN=55324NT @ 1735UT  BOUTF-AVG=55351NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+068,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+184NT@ 1447UT   GOES6-MIN=E:-140NT@ 1711UT  G6-AVG=+091,+018,-024
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,105;SESC:105,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,012
    KFCST=2334 4231 1113 3111  27DAY-AP=011,010   27DAY-KP=4332 2332 2342 2232
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MAGSI:16NT@1211UTC;**245STRM:1752-2001UTC;**MAGPAUSE
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 NOV 93 was  42.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 17 NOV 93 are: 2- 1- 1o 1o   2- 1o 3- 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  Region 7618 (N08W05) came to a
       bit of life this period producing numerous C-class flares.  In
       white light, the region showed restructuring and continues to
       grow in spot number, area coverage, and complexity. All reports
       indicate the region has developed a delta in the north central
       portion of the group with kinked a n-s oriented inversion line.
       New Region 7620 (N05E71) was numbered last night.  This Region
       is probably the return of old Region 7608.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate.  Region 7618 is expected to produce C-class,
       and possibly M-class activity for the remainder of its time on
       the disk.

       STD: A full-disk Yohkoh x-ray image has been appended to this
       report.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled from the
       beginning of the period until 1211Z when a disturbance began.
       A sudden impulse occurred at 1211Z (16 nanotesla in Boulder)
       and was followed by active to minor storm conditions at
       mid-latitudes and minor to severe storm levels at high lat-
       itudes. Magnetopause crossings were seen at both geosynch-
       ronous satellites (STD: GOES-6 and GOES-7) from about
       1600-1730Z (STD: for GOES-6, 1604Z to 1718Z). This increase was
       probably caused by a favorably positioned coronal hole.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly active with brief storm periods for the
       next 12 hours.  The field will quiet down to mostly unsettled
       for the remainder of the period.

            Event probabilities 19 nov-21 nov

                             Class M    60/60/60
                             Class X    10/10/10
                             Proton     10/10/10
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 nov-21 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/10/10
                        Minor Storm           15/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/30/15
                        Minor Storm           15/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low
       and middle latitude regions.  Effects of the disturbance noted
       above were only weakly noticed, particularly on the
       upper-middle latitude night-sector paths.  High and polar
       latitude paths also saw sporadic signal degradation during the
       period, again mostly on night-sector transauroral paths where
       fading, multipathing, and minor auroral absorption contributed
       to signal instabilities.  Signal conditions on transpolar and
       transauroral circuits are expected to remain sporadically
       unstable over the next 24 hours.  Effects of the current
       disturbance could persist through much of 19 November before
       weakening. Thereafter, propagation should return to near-normal
       over all regions.  No significant effects are expected over the
       middle or low latitude regions, although night-sector fading
       levels should be enhanced on upper-middle latitude paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N08W05  338  0740 DKI  09  035 BETA-DELTA
7620  N05E71  262  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7616  N11W72  045                    PLAGE
7619  N10W71  044                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 NOVEMBER TO 21 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1928 2115 2155              C1.4        110


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
18/1135      1230     1303      NO8E022   LDE    B5.1   88
18/1928      2115     2155                LDE    C1.4  147


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
17 Nov: 1819  1829  1840  B6.0  SF  7618  N07E11                       
        2112  2121  2132  B2.4                                         
        2207  2215  2222  B2.2                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (33.3)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (66.7)

 Total Events: 003 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
17 Nov: 2207  2215  2222  B2.2                     III,V

NOTES:
  

