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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 17 Nov 93 23:03:57 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                17 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 321, 11/17/93
10.7 FLUX=100.0  90-AVG=093        SSN=057      BKI=3100 0032  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=1.4E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2111 2133  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=033,005,000,003,003,002,023,015   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.8   @ 1840UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 0103UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2030UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1130UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1345UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55362NT @ 2356UT   BOUTF-MIN=55337NT @ 2031UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+065,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+113NT@ 1849UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 1041UT  G6-AVG=+086,+018,-034
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,100,100;SESC:100,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=3334 4333 2225 5221  27DAY-AP=007,011   27DAY-KP=1223 3220 4332 2332
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 NOV 93 was  44.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 NOV 93 are: 3- 2o 3- 3-   2o 2o 1o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  Region 7618 (N09E07) has
       shown some white light growth since yesterday, but overall this
       region has remained relatively stable.  The remainder of the
       disk is spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate.  Region 7618 is expected to produce C-class
       and isolated M-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels for the
       past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  for day one, the
       geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly active levels in
       response to a favorably located coronal hole.  The field on
       days two and three is expected to be at mostly unsettled
       levels.

            Event probabilities 18 nov-20 nov

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 nov-20 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/10
                        Minor Storm           25/25/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                45/35/20
                        Minor Storm           20/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Minor deterioration of signal qualities for transpolar and
       transauroral circuits is expected over the next 24 to 48 hours
       with greatest instabilities expected during the local night and
       sunrise sectors.  Middle and low latitude paths should remain
       near-normal with possibly only slightly increased levels of
       night-sector fading and multipathing over the higher latitude
       paths.  Conditions should return to near-normal over all
       regions by 20 November.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N09E07  338  0650 DKI  10  047 BETA
7616  N11W59  046                    PLAGE
7619  N10W58  045                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 NOVEMBER TO 20 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
16 Nov: 0002  0019  0039  B3.2                                         
        0456  0458  0501  B3.0                                         
        0907  0912  0915  C1.0  SF  7618  N10E30                       
        0929  0933  0937  B4.2                                         
        1039  1042  1044  B2.6                                         
        2322  2326  2335  B2.6                                         
        2349  2353  2356  B1.7                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  1   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (14.3)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    006  (85.7)

 Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


