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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9311170402.AA00109@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 93 21:02:26 MST
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Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
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Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                16 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray flux has been estimated.  Loss of x-ray
      data during the day prevented the computation of this value.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 320, 11/16/93
10.7 FLUX=100.4  90-AVG=093        SSN=045      BKI=2232 2212  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B1.1     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=3233 2212  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=017,013,028,018,010,010,006,013   DEV-AVG=014 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.0   @ 0913UT    XRAY-MIN= A9.4   @ 1556UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.6
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1655UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1900UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2315UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2210UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55361NT @ 2358UT   BOUTF-MIN=55343NT @ 2022UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+050,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+102NT@ 1613UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 0933UT  G6-AVG=+072,+021,-043
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,100,100;SESC:100,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,015/015,020,015
    KFCST=1111 1111 3334 4333  27DAY-AP=005,007   27DAY-KP=2121 1222 1223 3220
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 NOV 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 15 NOV 93 are: 3o 3o 2- 2-   2- 1+ 2+ 3o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  Region 7618 (N08E22) has
       continued to slowly decrease in activity yet increase in white
       light appearance.  The remainder of the disk is spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate.  Region 7618 is still expected to produce at
       least C-class activity with a chance for M-class activity.

       STD: The latest Yohkoh x-ray image has been appended to this
       report.  The image was taken at approximately 03:00 UTC on
       16 November and clearly shows the finger-extension of the
       southern polar coronal hole which is expected to prove at
       least mildly geoeffective on 18 November.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       at middle latitudes for the past 24 hours.  High latitudes
       have experienced some isolated active periods.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled on day one, active on day two
       due to a favorably located coronal hole, and back to mostly
       unsettled on day three.

            Event probabilities 17 nov-19 nov

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 nov-19 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                40/35/35
                        Minor Storm           30/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/35/30
                        Minor Storm           35/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/10

            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  Conditions are expected to become mildly degraded
       over transauroral and transpolar paths on 18 October due to a
       well-placed coronal hole.  However, the disturbance should be
       fairly short-lived (about 24 hours) and therefore is not
       expected to produce any lasting impacts.  Recovery should be
       fairly rapid and near-normal propagation should return on
       19 October.  Daylit paths are still at risk for periods of
       brief SWF activity due to minor solar flares.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N08E22  338  0580 DKI  09  035 BETA
7616  N11W46  046                    PLAGE
7617  S15W82  082                    PLAGE
7619  N10W45  045                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 NOVEMBER TO 19 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
48   S35W03 S42W13 S10W33 S03W29  023  ISO   NEG   015 10830A
49   N30E67 N16E47 N25E39 N35E57  313  ISO   POS   007 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
15 Nov: 0804  0806  0816        SF  7618  N09E45                       
        1525  1528  1534  B2.9                                         
        1628  1630  1636        SF  7618  N09E40                       
        1702  1709  1718  B6.9                                         
        1917  1925  1945  B8.2  SF  7618  N08E40                       
        2207  2210  2214  B2.9                                         
        2325  2332  2346  B3.0                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  0   0   0     3   0   0   0   0    003  (42.9)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (57.1)

 Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     16 November 1993, 03:00 UTC

                                    North
                       ........ .      ....           ......
               ....,,,,,,,:::::,,,,,...,,,,,,,..,,,,::,,,......                
           ....,,,,:::;;:::,,,,::,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::,,,,,,,,,,,...            
      .....,,,,,::;;;::,,,,,..,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,.,,,.,,,,,,,:::::::,,,,,...       
   ......,,,:::;;;::::,,,,,,,,,...,,,,...,,,,...,,,..,,,,,,,::;;;:::,,...      
  ....,,,,::;;;;:::::::,,,,,,,,....,,...,,,,,,,,,....,.,,,,,,:::;;;::,,,..     
 ...,,,:::;;;;,::;;;;;;;:::::,,,..,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::;;;::,,..... 
 ..,,:::;;;-:,,:;--------;;:::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,::::::::::::;;:::,,....
..,,:::;;-;,,,,,;-+|||+---;;::,,,:::::::,,,,::,::::,:,::::::;;;::::::;;;::,,...
.,:::;;;--:::::;--+!22!++--;:::::;::::::;;::,::::,,,,:,,,:;;;:::::::::;;;:,,,..
,::;;;---;::::;!12|!441||+-;;::::::::::;;;;;;::,,,,,,,,,:::::::::::::::;;::,,,.
,::;;-++;::;;;;;-++!4*3!++-;;;:::::,,::;;;::;;;;::,:,..,::::::::;;;;;;;;;;;::,,
,::;;-++::::;;;---|2*@@4!++--;;;;;:::;;;;;;;:::::::::,, .,:::;;;;;;+|-;;--;;::,
,::;;-+;:::;----|!24@@@#1|+--;;;;:::;|!-;;;::::::::,,,,. ,;,:;;----|!+-+---;;:,
,,::;;-;:;;;---++|124*42!++-;;;:::::;---;::::::;;;;;:,..,,:::;;;;--+!121!+-;;::
.,,::;;;::;;;;;;+!!11!|++-;;;:;;;::::;;:::::::;;;;:::,,,:::::;;-----+||+-+-;;::
.,,::;;:::;;:;;;;;------;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;::::::;;:::::,,:::,:::::;;--;-;;;;++-;::
.,,::;;;:::::::;;;;;;;;;;+!+;;;;-----;:::::;;;;;::,.,,::,::::;;;;;;;;;;-+|+-;;:
..,,::;;::;::,::::::;;;;;--;::;:;--;;:::::::;;;:,. .,:,:::;;;;------+++|!||+-;:
..,,::;;;;-;:,,,,,:,,:;;;-;:::;:::;;:::;::::,..   .,::::;::;;;;;;-++|!321!|+;;:
 ..,,:;;;;::,,,,,,,,,::;;;;:::;;:;;;;;;:,,.      .,::,,;;;;;--++--++|!21!|-;::,
 ..,,:::;;;:,,,,,.,,,,,::::,::;-;:;;:::,        .,::,,:;;;;-;--+|+|+||!1!+;::,,
  ..,,:::;;;::,,,,..,,::::::,:::::::::,      .,::::::::;;;;;;;;--+++|||++;:::,,
   ...,,::;;-:,,,,,,...,,,,,:,,,,,,:,,      ,:::;;;;;;;::;;;------+++++-;;::,,,
    ....,,:::;;:,,,,......,,,.,.,...         ,:::::;;;;::;;;;;;;--+----;;;:,,,,
        ...,,,::::,..    ..                   .,,,,,,::::::;;;;------;;::::,,,,
           ....,,,:,,.         Coronal       ....,,,,,,,,::;---;;;;;;::::,,,,,.
                 .  ...           Hole      ....,,,,::;;-------;;;;:::,,,......
                                              .,,:;--++-----;;;;::::,,,,... .. 
                                     .    ...,,,::;;;-----;;;::::,,,.....      
                                            ......,,,::::::::::,,,.....        
                                                   ....,.,,,,,.......          

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


