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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 15 Nov 93 22:26:41 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                15 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 319, 11/15/93
10.7 FLUX=102.2  90-AVG=093        SSN=043      BKI=2311 2223  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B1.6     FLU1=2.5E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3322 2123  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=019,021,009,009,010,017,017,031   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.6   @ 1626UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 1438UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1240UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2035UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2340UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1435UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55365NT @ 1324UT   BOUTF-MIN=55351NT @ 2302UT  BOUTF-AVG=55361NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+041,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1529UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-061NT@ 1136UT  G6-AVG=+067,+030,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,105;SESC:105,105,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,020/010,015,020
    KFCST=1234 4431 1234 4432  27DAY-AP=006,005   27DAY-KP=2223 2121 2121 1222
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 NOV 93 was  39.6.
      The Full Kp Indices for 14 NOV 93 are: 1+ 2o 2+ 3-   3o 4- 2+ 3- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  Region 7618 (N08E35) has
       shown a decrease in activity during the period, but remains
       bright.  Region 7619 (N10W32) has become a spotless plage.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled during the first two days of the
       period.  Day three will be active due to a favorably located
       coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 16 nov-18 nov

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 nov-18 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/15/35
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                50/60/45
                        Minor Storm           05/05/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions are expected over the next 48 hours.
       Conditions are expected to deteriorate slightly on 18 November,
       particularly on transauroral and transpolar paths, due to
       anticipated enhancements in geophysical activity associated
       with a well-placed coronal hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N08E35  338  0520 EKI  11  033 BETA
7616  N11W33  046                    PLAGE
7617  S15W69  082                    PLAGE
7619  N10W32  045                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 NOVEMBER TO 18 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0904 0904 0905                          120


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
 15/B0334             A0407     S19E90     BSL


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
14 Nov: 0035  0100  0123  C2.5  SF  7618  N09E59                       
        0405  0411  0416  B6.7                                         
        0417  0427  0434  C2.0                                         
        0529  0534  0540  B2.3                                         
        0934  0937  0941  B2.2                                         
        1123  1127  1130  B5.2  SF  7618  N08E57                       
        1433  1441  1452  B2.7                                         
        1505  1508  1513  B2.6                                         
        1630  1634  1637  B2.0                                         
        1655  1701  1705  C1.2  SF  7618  N07E52                       
        1816  1825  1830  B4.1  SF  7618  N08E53                       
        2128  2131  2133  B1.9                                         
        2227  2232  2234  B4.8  SF  7618  N09E50                       
        2303  2313  2343  B7.4  SF  7618  N08E50                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  2   0   0     6   0   0   0   0    006  (42.9)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    008  (57.1)

 Total Events: 014 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


