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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 14 Nov 93 22:08:23 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                14 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 318, 11/14/93
10.7 FLUX=094    90-AVG=093        SSN=039      BKI=1223 3322  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=1.4E+06  FLU10=1.5E+04  PKI=1223 3423  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=008,010,016,023,020,027,010,016   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.5   @ 0100UT    XRAY-MIN= A9.1   @ 1743UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2300UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1500UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1405UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55362NT @ 2333UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 1851UT  BOUTF-AVG=55352NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+067,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+130NT@ 1848UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 0942UT  G6-AVG=+086,+016,-032
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1234 5321 1245 4322  27DAY-AP=007,006   27DAY-KP=2322 2311 2223 2121
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 NOV 93 was  38.5.
      The Full Kp Indices for 13 NOV 93 are: 2o 1+ 3- 2-   3o 2+ 2+ 1- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low.  Region 7618 (N09E49) continues
       to be the dominant spotted region on the disk. It has produced
       occasional C-class flares during the period. Newly assigned
       Region 7619 (N10W19) emerged.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours, with one period of active at
       high latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled.

            Event probabilities 15 nov-17 nov

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 nov-17 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/15/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  No SWFs were observed in the last 24 hours, although
       there remains a moderate probability for isolated SWFs on
       daylit paths due to minor solar flare activity.  Conditions
       should continue normal over all regions throughout the next 72
       hours, through 17 November inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N09E49  337  0420 EKO  11  017 BETA
7619  N11W19  045  0010 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7616  N11W20  046                    PLAGE
7617  S15W56  082                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 NOVEMBER TO 17 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
14/A0911             B2205       N21E41   DSF
14/2303      2313     2343       N08E50   LDE    B7.4   40


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
13 Nov: 0011  0017  0024  C2.0                          85        70        54
        0057  0104  0113  C1.5                                         
        0155  0200  0205  C1.2                                         
        0234  0242  0246  C3.2                                         
        0752  0756  0759  C8.3                                         
        0910  0910  0914        SF  7618  N08E73                       
        0929  0933  0940  C3.1  SF  7618  N07E73                       
        1000  1007  1012  C2.3                                         
        1025  1032  1035  C1.7                                         
        1205  1217  1223  B9.9                                         
        1406  1414  1418  B5.8                                         
        1438  1442  1447  B4.4                                         
        1520  1559  1614  C5.8  SF  7618  N10E68                       
        1735  1740  1744  C1.1  SF  7618  N10E66                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  3   1   0     4   1   0   0   0    005  (31.2)
Uncorrellated:  7   1   0     0   0   0   0   0    011  (68.8)

 Total Events: 016 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
13 Nov: 0011  0017  0024  C2.0                     III
        0057  0104  0113  C1.5                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


