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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 13 Nov 93 21:34:12 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                13 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 317, 11/13/93
10.7 FLUX=094    90-AVG=093        SSN=032      BKI=1231 2321  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B2.9     FLU1=2.1E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2132 3221  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=008,014,021,009,019,030,016,006   DEV-AVG=015 NT     SWF=03:033
 XRAY-MAX= M2.1   @ 0629UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.7   @ 2256UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0740UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2230UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1310UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1525UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55361NT @ 1112UT   BOUTF-MIN=55334NT @ 1831UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1543UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 1055UT  G6-AVG=+091,+015,-031
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2233 4322 2233 4322  27DAY-AP=006,007   27DAY-KP=3211 1212 2322 2311
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.1@0417UTC;**MINFLR:M2.1/1F@0628UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 NOV 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 12 NOV 93 are: 2o 2o 2- 1+   2- 1o 1o 0+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate. Region 7618 (N09E62), the
       sole spotted region visible, produced an M2.1/1F flare at
       0628Z. It is also the likely site of an M1 event at 0417Z, when
       clouds hampered optical patrol. The region consists of ribbons
       of bright plage, and a possible delta configuration in the
       trailer spots.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       persist at the moderate level, with additional M-class flares
       likely from Region 7618.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled.

            Event probabilities 14 nov-16 nov

                             Class M    60/60/60
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 nov-16 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  One additional confirmed SWF was associated with the
       M2.1 flare at 13/0628Z, although it was fairly brief.  Similar
       near-normal conditions are expected to persist over the next
       72 hours.  A moderate to high probability exists for possible
       additional SWF activity over daylit paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N09E62  337  0370 EAI  11  022 BETA
7616  N06W31  070                    PLAGE
7617  S15W43  082                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 NOVEMBER TO 16 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0011 0017 0024              C2.0       2700 85
 0017 0018 0018                         1200
 0057 0104 0113              C1.5        100
 0410 0417 0421              M1.1            38
 0539 0539 0539                          170
 0555 0628 0647 7618  N08E73 M2.1  1F
 0805 0805 0806                          120
 0848 0848 0849                          230
 1038 1039 1039                         1500


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
          NO DATA


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
12 Nov: 0025  0032  0040  B8.8                                         
        0119  0123  0128  B3.4                                         
        0146  0154  0203  B3.8                                         
        0554  0559  0603  B8.2                                         
        0647  0738  0746  B7.2                                         
        0757  0800  0802  B5.5  SF  7618  N09E81                       
        0829  0838  0846  C1.6                                         
        0958  1006  1014  B6.0                                         
        1057  1100  1103  B2.8  SF  7618  N09E81                       
        1353  1357  1400  B4.4                                         
        1441  1614  1651  C3.5                                         
        1754  1805  1809  C3.5  SF  7618  N11E78                       
        1942  1945  1948  C1.3                                         
        1953  2000  2008  C3.7  SF  7618  N10E77                       
        2035  2038  2042  C1.9  SF  7618  N11E78        33             
        2045  2048  2050  C2.1                                         
        2127  2132  2135  C1.2                                         
        2154  2200  2204  C2.2  SF  7618  N08E78        58             
        2251  2302  2308  C3.0  SF  7618  N11E65                       
        2318  2322  2326  C1.5                                         
        2331  2334  2336  C1.4                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7618:  5   1   0     8   0   0   0   0    008  (36.4)
Uncorrellated:  7   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    014  (63.6)

 Total Events: 022 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
12 Nov: 0119  0123  0128  B3.4                     III
        0214  0225  0235  M2.0  SF  7618  N08E82   II
        1754  1805  1809  C3.5  SF  7618  N11E78   III
        1942  1945  1948  C1.3                     III
        2035  2038  2042  C1.9  SF  7618  N11E78   III
        2045  2048  2050  C2.1                     III
        2127  2132  2135  C1.2                     III
        2154  2200  2204  C2.2  SF  7618  N08E78   III,V
        2251  2302  2308  C3.0  SF  7618  N11E65   III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     13 November 1993, 01:50 UTC

                                    North
       ..      ..,,,,,,,,,... .... ...      .
     .... .....,,,:::::;;;;;:::,,,...........  .    .                          
   ....,.....,,,:::::;;;;:;:;::::,,,,.,,,,.,...............                    
 ......,,,,,,,:::;;::::::::,,,,.,,....,,.,,.,.......,.,,,,,,,.....             
...,,,,:,:::::;;;;:,,,,,,,,,,,,...........,.................,,,,,,,,....       
.,,,,,::::;;;;;;:::,:,,,::::,,,,..............................,,:::::,,,,...   
.,:::;;;;-----;;:::::::,,::,,,,,,.,,.,,,,...........,.........,,,,;-;;::,,.....
,::;;;--++++--;;;::::::::::,,,,,,,,::,:::,,,,..................,.,,:;;;;:,,,...
::;---+|121+-;;;;;;::::::::::::::::::::::::,,....................,,,,;;;;::,,,,
;---+|!143!+---;;;;;;:::::::;::::::::::::,,,,,.,,....,,.........,.,,,,;;;;;:::,
-+|!!124#2|+---;;;;;::;;;:::::::,::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,..,,,,,...,;;;;;:::
+|!2223*#1||+-----;;;;;;;;;;:,,,,,:::::::::::::,:::::,,,,,,,,...,,..,,,:-;;:::,
||!24*@@@3!|++--||-;;;;;;:::,,.   .,,;;;;;;;:::;-+-;::::::,,,,...,,,,.,,;;;:::,
|!!1124@@2!|++-+1+;;;;;;;::,,,,...,::;;;-;;;;;:;|!|;;;;;;;::,,,...,,,,,:;--;;::
+|!!!!11!|+++----;;;;;;---;:,,,,,:::;;;;;;;---;;+11!111!|-;::,,,,,::,:,:;||+-;;
+|+++||++++----;;;;;;;;;;:::,,::,,,:::;;;;;;;;;;;-+|++--+;;:::,:,,,:,:,:-21!|++
----++++++------;;;;-;;:::,::;::::::::::;;:;-;:::::::::;::::,,,::::::::;|321!+-
:;;--+++----+||-;;;;--;::,,:;;:;;;--;::;;;::;::::,,,,,,:,,,:::;-;::::::-4431|+-
,:;;--++++--;;;;;;;;;;:,..,;;:;;;;;-;:;;;;:::;;;-++-;;::;:;;;-+-;;::::;|*421|+;
,,::;--++++-;;;;::::,....,:;;:;;;;;;;:;::::;;----+||!+++|!||||-:,,,:::;!11!!|-:
.,,::;;------+-;;:,,.....,;;;;;;;;:;::;;----;;-++++-++||-++|+-:,,,,,:;+++-;;;;:
.,,,,:::;;;;--;;::,....,:;;;;;;;;;:::;--;;------+--;-++--;;::,..,,::;-+--;;;;::
....,,,::;;;;;:::::,..,:;----;;;:::::::;;;;-;----;:::;;-;;::,,.,,::;+---;;;::::
 .....,,,::;;::::,,..,::;;;;;;;;:::::::::;-;::;;;::::;;;;:,,..,,,:-----;;:::,,,
  ......,,,:::::,,..,,:::::::::,:::,,,:::;;;;::;::;;;;;::,,....,;----;;;;::,,,,
          ......,,,.,,,,,,,,,:::,,,,,,,,,,::;;;;;;;;:::,,,,,,:;;;;;;;;;:::,,,,,
                 ..,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::::::,::;;;--;;;;;;;;:::,,,,,.
                    ......,,,,,,,,,::::,,::::::::::::;;-------;;;;;:::::,,.....
                       ....................,,,:::::;;--------;;;;:::::,,,......
                                           ......,,,,::;;;;;;;;:::::,,,,..     
                                                  ......,,,,:,::,,,......      
                                                           ....... ..          

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


