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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 13 Nov 93 12:06:18 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                12 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 316, 11/12/93
10.7 FLUX=090.8  90-AVG=093        SSN=015      BKI=1222 1111  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B1.6     FLU1=1.5E+06  FLU10=1.3E+04  PKI=2221 2111  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=005,010,010,010,008,006,007,005   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=01:014
 XRAY-MAX= M2.0   @ 0225UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.2   @ 1136UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.1
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1410UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2025UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1800UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1455UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55361NT @ 2352UT   BOUTF-MIN=55339NT @ 1813UT  BOUTF-AVG=55354NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1729UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 1236UT  G6-AVG=+090,+018,-039
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/012,010,007
    KFCST=1222 4322 1234 4322  27DAY-AP=004,006   27DAY-KP=1122 1211 3211 1212
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**MINFLR:M2.0/SF@0225UTC;**SWEEP:II=2@0225-0235UTC;
          **SWEEP:II=2@2108-2113UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 11 NOV 93 was  34.6.
      The Full Kp Indices for 11 NOV 93 are: 2- 3- 2o 2-   2- 1+ 1o 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate.  A new region has appeared
       at east limb, 7618 (N08E73).  It was responsible for an M2.0/SF
       flare, with associated Type II at 12/0225Z.  The region has
       also produced several C-class flares during the period.

       STD: Two Type II sweeps were observed from Region 7618.  The
       first, at 12/0225Z had an estimated shock velocity of 1600
       km/sec.  The second, at 12/2108Z was estimated at 600 km/sec.
       Flaring within this region has been very frequent and fairly
       impulsive.  As one would expect, the region is bright in
       x-rays.  Limb proximity is preventing detailed analysis of the
       region.  A special insert showing the x-ray emissions observed
       by the Japanese Yohkoh x-ray satellite has been appended to
       this report.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate due to Region 7618.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.

            Event probabilities 13 nov-15 nov

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 nov-15 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Hiraiso Japan reported a strong short wave fadeout
       (SWF) in conjunction with the M2.0/SF flare between
       approximately 02:22 and 02:46 UTC.  Other areas did not
       experience effects as pronounced as Hiraiso.  Conditions should
       continue near-normal.  There is a high probability for periodic
       short wave fadeouts (SWFs) over the next several days at least.
       Region 7618 appears to be a fairly volatile group at the
       moment.  Most of the SWFs should be fairly brief in nature.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7618  N08E73  339  0350 DAO  07  005 BETA
7616  N06W18  070                    PLAGE
7617  S15W30  082                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 NOVEMBER TO 15 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0214 0225 0235 7618  N08E82 M2.0  SF        46     II
 0726 0726 0727                          180
 1441 1614 1651              C3.5        190
 1754 1805 1809 7618  N11E78 C3.5  SF    270
 1942 1945 1948              C1.3        420
 2029 2029 2029                          120
 2035 2038 2042 7618  N11E78 C1.9  SF    270 33
 2108      2113                                     II
 2127 2132 2135              C1.2       1600
 2154 2200 2204 7618  N08E78 C2.2  SF    800 58


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
12/ 0225              0235       N08E82   RSP    M2.0   21  2
12/ 1441     1614     1651                LDE    C3.5  130
12/ 2108              2113                RSP               2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
11 Nov: 0044  0048  0050  B2.4                                         
        0230  0234  0237  B1.8                                         
        0246  0255  0259  B1.8                                         
        0533  0536  0540  B3.3                                         
        0604  0609  0612  B4.6                                         
        0641  0646  0650  B3.4                                         
        0757  0802  0812  B5.6                                         
        1100  1126  1132  C9.7                                         
        1335  1341  1346  B5.0                                         
        1441  1456  1505  B8.4                                         
        1700  1705  1710  B5.3                                         
        1723  1734  1744  C1.7                                         
        1913  1918  1935  B3.1                                         
        2115  2122  2133  B4.6                                         
        2243  2246  2249  B2.9                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  2   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    015  (100.0)

 Total Events: 015 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
11 Nov: 0246  0255  0259  B1.8                     III
        1441  1456  1505  B8.4                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                     12 November 1993, 03:00 UTC

                                    North
 .....,........,,,,,,.,........ .       .
......,.......,,,,:,::::::::,,,............ .        ...                       
...,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::::::::,,,,,,.,,.,..................... .                  
.,,,,,:,,,,,,:::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,.....,,.................,...... .            
,,,:::::::::::::::,:,,,,,,,,,.......,,,...,...............,,.,,,,......        
,,:::::::;;;;;;:,::::::,,,,,,.................................,,,,,,,........  
:::;;;;;;----;::::::::,::,,,,,,,,,,,,.,......,..................,,::::,,,..... 
:;;;----+|+-;;:::::::::::,:::::::::,,,,,..,.....................,,,,::::,,.....
;;--+++|!!+-;;;;::::::::::::::::::::::,,.,..,...,...............,.,,,::::,,,,..
;-++||112!---;;;;::::::::::::::::,:,,::,,,,........,.............,,,,,:::::,,,,
++||!!231+++---;;;;;;::::::::::::::,,,:,,,,,,,....................,,,,,:::::,,,
|!23**#3!||++-----;;;::,,,::::::::,,,,,,,::,::,,.,,,...............,,,::;:::,,,
!13*#@@#2!|||---;;;;::,,..,,,::;;;;:::::;;;;:::,,,,,,.................,,::::,,,
+|113331!||||---;;;;;::::,::::;;;;;;;;;-+|!|;;;;:::,,........,,......,,,:-;;;::
-++|||||+++-----;;;;:::::::::;;:;;;;::::-11|+|||+-:::,,,.....,,.,,,,,,,,:++--;;
;;--++++------;;;;;:::::::::::;:;;;;;;::::;++----;::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:;||++-;
:;;---+--+-;;;;;;;;:;;:::::::::::::;;;::,,,,,::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::;|11|+--
:;;;;----+-;;;;;;:::::::;;;;::::::::;:::,::,.,,,,,,,,,,,::::,,,,,,,,::;-431!|++
::::;;-+-;;;;;:::::::::;;;:::::::;::::;;;---;;:::;;,,:;;;;:,,,,,,,,:::;|331!!|+
,:::;;---;;;;::,.,:::::;;::::::::,::;;;;;-++++--++!+-;--;:,,.,,,,,,,::;|!!|||||
,,,:::;;----::,,.,,:;;;;::::::::;;;;;;;;;;;-;;-++;;--;;;,,.....,,,,,:;++-;;;;::
.,,,,:::;;-;;::,,::;;;;:::::::;;;;:::;;;;;;:::;;:;;:::,.....,,,,,,::;---;;;:::,
..,,,,::::;;::::::;;;;;::::::::::::;;;;:::::,,,::;::,,. ...,,,,::::;--;;;;:::,,
......,,,::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::,,,:::::,,.....,,,,:::;;;;;;;:::::,,
 .....,..,,,,,:::::::::,:::,,,,,,,,:;::::::::::::,,..  ...,,,,,:;;;;;;::::::,,,
    . ........,,,,:::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::::,,,,,,,.......,,,,:;;;;:::::::,,,,,,
      .   .......,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,...,,,,,::;;;::::::,:,,,,,,,,.
      .         .....,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::;;;;;;;::::::,,,,,,.....
                 ......,,.........,..,.,,,,,,:,,,,,,:;;;;;;;;;:::::,,,,,.......
                   ........   ................,,,,...,,:::::::::::,,,,.....    
                                           .  .......  ...,,,,,,,,,.....       
                                                            .........          

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


