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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 11 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 11 Nov 93 21:24:44 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                11 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 11 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 315, 11/11/93
10.7 FLUX=088.8  90-AVG=093        SSN=037      BKI=0222 1111  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=8.0E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2322 2111  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=002,017,010,011,008,008,006,005   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C9.7   @ 1127UT    XRAY-MIN= A8.5   @ 0124UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.3
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1920UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 2355UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2235UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1425UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55365NT @ 1354UT   BOUTF-MIN=55341NT @ 1905UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+065,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+111NT@ 1916UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-068NT@ 1158UT  G6-AVG=+089,+018,-039
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,085,085;SESC:085,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,010/010,015,015
    KFCST=0123 3211 1234 4211  27DAY-AP=005,004   27DAY-KP=2221 2111 1122 1211
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 10 NOV 93 was  34.6.
      The Full Kp Indices for 10 NOV 93 are: 3- 3- 3o 3-   3o 3- 3- 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. The largest event of the day was
       an uncorrelated C9 x-ray flare at 1126Z. This event most likely
       was associated with limb activity from Region 7613 (S13W91).
       Active surging and prominence disruptions were reported from
       that area throughout the interval. Elsewhere, a new region may
       be coming into view at east limb near N11, where surging has
       also been seen.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low, pending further development from either west or east limb.

       STD: Background x-ray levels have increased above B-class
       levels over the last 24 hours.  In addition, an M-class flare
       is in progress (preliminary maximum M2.0 at 12/0227Z) at the
       time of this writing.  Unfortunately, we do not have an
       optically correlated site to specify in this report at this
       time.  More will be given tommorrow.

            The geomagnetic field has been quiet to mildly unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.

            Event probabilities 12 nov-14 nov

                             Class M    10/05/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 12 nov-14 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal to slightly
       below-normal over all regions.  Slight signal degradation was
       reported over some high latitude paths.  Conditions are
       expected to continue near-normal throughout the next 72 hours,
       although additional minor night-sector signal instabilities
       will be possible over all regions (particularly for
       transauroral paths).


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7613  S13W91  157  0100 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7616  N06W05  071  0010 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7617  S15W17  083  0010 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 12 NOVEMBER TO 14 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7611 N17   329


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 11 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 11 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 11/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
10 Nov: 0438  0443  0450  B1.4                                         
        0723  0727  0732  B1.8                                         
        0915  0918  0920  B1.1                                         
        1536  1541  1544  B2.1                                         
        1553  1638  1816  B3.7                                         
        2134  2137  2140  B1.7                                         
        2324  2327  2330  B2.8                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    007  (100.0)

 Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


