From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Thu Nov 11 05:32:36 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA03124
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Thu, 11 Nov 1993 05:32:34 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA26300; Thu, 11 Nov 1993 05:30:47 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA26231; Thu, 11 Nov 1993 05:29:48 +0200
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA05008; Wed, 10 Nov 93 20:29:12 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9311110329.AA05008@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 10 Nov 93 20:29:10 MST
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1121
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                10 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 314, 11/10/93
10.7 FLUX=090.0  90-AVG=093        SSN=040      BKI=2332 3221  BAI=009
BGND-XRAY=A7.7     FLU1=7.1E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3333 3331  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=017,024,036,014,025,011,010,006   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.7   @ 1639UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.5   @ 0723UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 0925UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1655UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.9%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1510UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 2250UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 0008UT   BOUTF-MIN=55340NT @ 1827UT  BOUTF-AVG=55354NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+063,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+108NT@ 1651UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-067NT@ 0927UT  G6-AVG=+086,+018,-039
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,085,085;SESC:090,085,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=0004 4000 0005 5000  27DAY-AP=008,005   27DAY-KP=3222 2221 2221 2111
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 NOV 93 was  33.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 09 NOV 93 are: 2+ 3- 2+ 3-   2o 2o 3- 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7613 (S12W75)
       continued its slow decay. No new regions were numbered this
       period.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet for the entire forecast period.

            Event probabilities 11 nov-13 nov

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 nov-13 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar conditions will persist for at least the next three
       days, through 13 November inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7613  S12W75  154  0350 EKO  13  004 BETA
7616  N06E08  071  0000 AXX  02  005 ALPHA
7617  S14W04  083  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 NOVEMBER TO 13 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7611 N17   329


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
10/B1545             B1640       N04E07   DSF    B2.1    8
10/ 1553     1638     1816                LDE    B3.7  143


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
43   N55W54 N43W90 N61W90 N61W90  161  EXT   POS   012 10830A
45   S25W11 S25W11 S12W26 S12W26  103  ISO   POS   000 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
09 Nov: 0426  0429  0431  B1.4                                         
        0747  0752  0758  B2.7  SF  7613  S09W58                       
        1036  1055  1123  B1.7                                         
        1938  1944  1949  B1.6  SF  7617  S19E11                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7613:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (25.0)
  Region 7617:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (25.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (50.0)

 Total Events: 004 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


