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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 9 Nov 93 21:32:28 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                09 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 313, 11/09/93
10.7 FLUX=090.5  90-AVG=093        SSN=027      BKI=2323 1212  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=A6.6     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2323 2232  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=014,030,018,029,008,010,008,019   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.7   @ 0752UT    XRAY-MIN= A4.9   @ 0308UT   XRAY-AVG= A8.1
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1535UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1935UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2235UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55368NT @ 0332UT   BOUTF-MIN=55340NT @ 1947UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+068,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+117NT@ 1719UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-069NT@ 1043UT  G6-AVG=+090,+018,-039
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,085;SESC:090,090,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010
    KFCST=1004 4000 0005 5000  27DAY-AP=013,008   27DAY-KP=3443 2222 3222 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0000-2359UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 08 NOV 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 08 NOV 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7613 (S12W63)
       managed to produced a single B2/SF flare this period. This
       Region continues to decay. Region 7617 (S16E09) produced two
       small B-class flares but has become spotless.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7613 has a diminishing chance of C-class
       activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire forecast
       period.

            Event probabilities 10 nov-12 nov

                             Class M    05/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 nov-12 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions returned to near-normal over all
       regions today.  No changes are expected over the next 72
       hours, except for possible additional slight improvements in
       propagation over the high and polar latitude paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7613  S12W63  155  0380 EKO  13  005 BETA
7616  N06E21  071  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7617  S16E09  083                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 NOVEMBER TO 12 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7605 S17   351
7611 N17   329


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1422 1422 1422                          100


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
09/A1218             B1323       S24E13   DSF
09/B1833             B2002       N38E90   EPL


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
43   N58W33 N33W90 N33W90 N59W53  163  EXT   POS   018 10830A
45   S28E08 S28W03 S17W13 S15W12  101  ISO   POS   003 10830A
47   N64E78 N51E58 N65E28 N65E28  044  EXT   POS   011 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
08 Nov: 0314  0319  0323  B1.5                                         
        0403  0409  0423  B1.5                                         
        2152  2204  2211  B5.7  SF  7617  S20E21                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7617:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (33.3)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (66.7)

 Total Events: 003 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
08 Nov: 2152  2204  2211  B5.7  SF  7617  S20E21   III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


