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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 08 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 93 21:09:43 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                08 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 08 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 312, 11/08/93
10.7 FLUX=091.9  90-AVG=094        SSN=042      BKI=4323 2333  BAI=014
BGND-XRAY=A6.2     FLU1=1.9E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=4333 3432  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=042,026,018,034,010,021,029,022   DEV-AVG=025 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B5.7   @ 2205UT    XRAY-MIN= A3.0   @ 0027UT   XRAY-AVG= A9.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2035UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0810UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1635UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55372NT @ 0242UT   BOUTF-MIN=55330NT @ 1914UT  BOUTF-AVG=55354NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+064,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+109NT@ 2033UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-072NT@ 1033UT  G6-AVG=+085,+019,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,090,090;SESC:095,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,005,005/012,010,010
    KFCST=1114 4000 0004 4000  27DAY-AP=015,013   27DAY-KP=4443 3322 3443 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0000-2359UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 07 NOV 93 was  34.9.
      The Full Kp Indices for 07 NOV 93 are: 4o 2o 4o 3+   3+ 3+ 3o 4o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. There were no flares
       of note. No new regions were numbered. Region 7613 (S13W49)
       continued its slow decay.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7613 still has C-class flare potential.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours. High latitudes saw a short period of
       minor to major storming at 08/1200UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire forecast
       period.

            Event probabilities 09 nov-11 nov

                             Class M    05/05/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 09 nov-11 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions approached near-normal values
       for the high and polar latitude paths today with occasional
       signal degradation during the local night and sunrise sectors.
       Middle and low latitude paths remained near-normal with only
       slightly elevated levels of fading during the local night
       sectors.  Conditions will continue to gradually improve over
       all regions.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7613  S13W49  154  0490 EKO  12  007 BETA
7616  N07E33  072  0000 BXO  06  002 BETA
7617  S16E22  083  0010 BXO  05  003 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 09 NOVEMBER TO 11 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7604 N09   004
7605 S17   351


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 08 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1321 1322 1322                          380
 1542 1542 1543                          460



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 08 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 08/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
43   N44E42 N30W83 N61W90 N61W90  156  EXT   POS   052 10830A
45   S28E20 S30E17 S15W01 S12E02  101  ISO   POS   002 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
07 Nov: 2251  2255  2258  B1.6                                         
        2333  2338  2343  B1.4                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (100.0)

 Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
07 Nov: 2333  2338  2343  B1.4                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


