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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 07 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 8 Nov 93 17:40:32 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                07 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 07 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 311, 11/07/93
10.7 FLUX=095    90-AVG=094        SSN=044      BKI=4243 3334  BAI=018
BGND-XRAY=A7.8     FLU1=3.1E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=4243 3334  PAI=019
  BOU-DEV=058,018,053,025,027,027,023,056   DEV-AVG=035 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.6   @ 2256UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.6   @ 1603UT   XRAY-AVG= A9.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2115UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1840UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1210UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1420UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55371NT @ 2333UT   BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 1546UT  BOUTF-AVG=55351NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+065,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+118NT@ 1804UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-072NT@ 1045UT  G6-AVG=+086,+018,-042
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,005/015,012,010
    KFCST=1115 5111 0004 4000  27DAY-AP=022,015   27DAY-KP=4444 4424 4443 3322
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0000-2359UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 06 NOV 93 was  34.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 06 NOV 93 are: 4- 3- 5- 5o   4+ 4- 3+ 4o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7613 (S12W36)
       continued its slow decay. There were no flares noted.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7613 has the best chance of activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24 hours, then
       quiet to unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 08 nov-10 nov

                             Class M    10/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 08 nov-10 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/10
                        Minor Storm           10/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/20
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions remained near-normal over the
       low latitudes, near-normal to slightly below-normal for middle
       latitude paths, and below-normal over the high and polar
       latitudes.  Although conditions are continuing to gradually
       improve, poor to occasionally very poor propagation conditions
       were common over the high and polar latitude regions during the
       local night and morning sectors.  Conditions will return to
       near-normal over the next 24 to 48 hours as levels of
       geomagnetic and auroral activity become and remain quiet.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7613  S12W36  154  0520 EKO  13  007 BETA
7616  N08E45  073  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7617  S17E34  084  0020 BXO  08  005 BETA
7612  S16W69  187                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 08 NOVEMBER TO 10 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7604 N09   004
7605 S17   351


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 07 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0416 0416 0416                          370
 1203 1204 1205                          220
 1856 1856 1856                          100



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 07 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 07/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
43   N59W23 S09W63 S03W90 N59W23  185  EXT   POS   018 10830A
44   S07W42 S14W45 S10W53 S04W44  169  ISO   POS   001 10830A
45   S27E36 S29E27 S16E14 S12E17  100  ISO   POS   004 10830A
46   N29E87 S02E76 N20E47 N29E87  062  ISO   POS   017 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
06 Nov: 1451  1454  1458  B1.6                                         
        2047  2104  2122  B3.3                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (100.0)

 Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


