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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 7 Nov 93 16:17:06 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                06 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 310, 11/06/93
10.7 FLUX=097    90-AVG=094        SSN=047      BKI=4344 4324  BAI=021
BGND-XRAY=A7.5     FLU1=3.9E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=4355 4434  PAI=027
  BOU-DEV=048,023,050,046,060,025,019,045   DEV-AVG=039 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.3   @ 2104UT    XRAY-MIN= A6.0   @ 0710UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2120UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1010UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1510UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1535UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 0158UT   BOUTF-MIN=55320NT @ 1034UT  BOUTF-AVG=55345NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+062,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1739UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-085NT@ 0917UT  G6-AVG=+084,+018,-043
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=018,015,010/020,015,012
    KFCST=2225 5212 1114 4111  27DAY-AP=025,022   27DAY-KP=4445 4334 4444 4424
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0717-2102UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 NOV 93 was  31.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 NOV 93 are not available.
 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7613 (S12W22)
       remained stable. There was no significant flare activity.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7613 should begin a slow decline and is not
       expected to produce more than C-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active
       levels for the past 24 hours. High latitude stations had
       minor to major storm levels from 06/0900 to 06/1800 UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours then
       mostly unsettled for the remainder of the forecast period.

            Event probabilities 07 nov-09 nov

                             Class M    10/10/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 nov-09 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/20/15
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/35/20
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal for low and
       middle latitude paths.  Conditions continued to be degraded
       for transpolar and transauroral paths, particularly on
       night-sector crossing where fading, multipathing, and
       absorption were evident.  Nevertheless, conditions are slowly
       improving over these regions.  Propagation should return to
       near-normal over all regions over the next 48 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7613  S12W22  154  0540 EKO  13  010 BETA
7616  N07E60  072  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7617  S18E50  082  0020 BXO  08  006 BETA
7612  S16W56  188                    PLAGE
7614  S07W32  164                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 NOVEMBER TO 09 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7604 N09    004


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1842 1845 1848                          130



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
43   N49W12 S17W62 N16W83 N60W43  187  EXT   POS   065 10830A
44   S05W26 S09W28 S02W40 N01W30  167  ISO   POS   002 10830A
45   S23E43 S26E43 S14E27 S14E27  102  ISO   POS   002 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
05 Nov: 0405  0412  0420  B2.6                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    001  (100.0)

 Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


