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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 4 Nov 93 9:05:17 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                03 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 307, 11/03/93
10.7 FLUX=093.9  90-AVG=093        SSN=020      BKI=0011 1225  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=A9.5     FLU1=9.1E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1011 2234  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=003,003,007,005,008,013,015,083   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.0   @ 1501UT    XRAY-MIN= A8.7   @ 0147UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.0
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2140UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2150UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1500UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 2130UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55366NT @ 1336UT   BOUTF-MIN=55332NT @ 2348UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+092,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+181NT@ 1758UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-054NT@ 1111UT  G6-AVG=+110,+013,-027
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,030,020/010,018,035
    KFCST=2344 4332 3466 5433  27DAY-AP=004,016   27DAY-KP=2110 1221 1244 5222
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN
   ALERTS=**245STRM:1355-1528UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 02 NOV 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 02 NOV 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Region 7613 (S12E16)
       displayed slight growth, but produced no subflares.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7613 could produce an isolated C-class
       subflare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

       STD: The field has become increasingly active over the last
       several hours (after approximately 22:00 UTC).  Storm
       conditions may be observed during the local night sectors if
       activity persists.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at unsettled to active levels during the first
       day. Activity is expected to increase to active to minor storm
       levels for the remainder of the period due to coronal hole
       effects.

            Event probabilities 04 nov-06 nov

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 nov-06 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           15/20/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/20/20

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/35/35
                        Minor Storm           20/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/25/20

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Slight signal degradation was observed after 22:00 UTC in
       response to enhanced levels of geomagnetic and auroral
       activity.  Otherwise, most regions saw near-normal propagation.
       Conditions are expected to deteriorate over the next 24 to 74
       hours as a well-placed coronal hole sweeps a high-speed solar
       wind stream past the Earth, producing periods of geomagnetic
       and auroral storming and poor to occasionally near-useless
       propagation for transauroral and transpolar circuits.
       Propagation over the middle latitudes is expected to vary from
       good to occasionally fair to poor during the local night
       sectors.  No significant improvements are expected until 06 or
       07 November.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7613  S12E16  155  0520 EKO  14  010 BETA
7608  N09W66  237                    PLAGE
7612  S16W17  188                    PLAGE
7614  S07E07  164                    PLAGE
7615  S14W35  206                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 NOVEMBER TO 06 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7601 N06   070


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0113 0114 0114                          120
 1227 1230 1231                          120
 1911 1911 1911                          110


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
43   N30E09 S20W24 N18W43 N57W32  195  EXT   POS   062 10830A
44   S06E13 S09E08 S04E06 S00E08  168  ISO   POS   000 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
NO EVENTS OBSERVED.


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    000  ( 0.0)

 Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


