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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 November
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 2 Nov 93 20:46:07 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                02 NOVEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 NOVEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 306, 11/02/93
10.7 FLUX=093.3  90-AVG=093        SSN=028      BKI=2111 1210  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2121 1211  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=010,008,009,008,008,015,005,004   DEV-AVG=008 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C3.0   @ 0001UT    XRAY-MIN= A9.1   @ 2353UT   XRAY-AVG= B5.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1635UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2225UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2340UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 2350UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 1337UT   BOUTF-MIN=55347NT @ 1849UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1644UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 1218UT  G6-AVG=+092,+015,-035
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,030/012,015,035
    KFCST=2233 3322 2344 4332  27DAY-AP=013,004   27DAY-KP=4441 1223 2110 1221
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 NOV 93 was  35.9.
      The Full Kp Indices for 01 NOV 93 are: 2o 2o 2o 2-   3- 2- 3o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. A long-duration C3/SF flare
       occurred at 01/2321Z from Region 7613 (S12E31). A Type IV
       spectral radio burst was associated with this flare. No
       significant changes were observed within the region, but
       magnetic gradients remained moderately strong in the dominant
       leader spot. New Region 7615 (S14W22) was numbered.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low. Region 7613 could produce an isolated C-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled during the first two days.
       Activity is expected to increase to minor storm levels on the
       final day due to coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 03 nov-05 nov

                             Class M    20/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 nov-05 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/25/30
                        Minor Storm           05/15/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/10/20

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/25/35
                        Minor Storm           10/15/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/25

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar near-normal conditions should persist through 04
       November before becoming degraded on 05 November due to
       anticipated enhancements in geomagnetic and auroral activity.
       Periods of very poor to near-useless propagation is expected
       for transpolar and transauroral circuits on 05 November.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z NOVEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7613  S12E31  153  0500 EKO  12  005 BETA
7615  S14W22  206  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7608  N09W53  237                    PLAGE
7612  S16W04  188                    PLAGE
7614  S07E20  164                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 NOVEMBER TO 05 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7597 S18   085
7601 N06   070


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 NOVEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 NOVEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
02/ 0000              0035                RSP                  2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
43   N50E32 S10W13 N20W32 N53W13  192  EXT   POS   056 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
01 Nov: 0720  0723  0727  B2.6  SF  7613  S08E50                            27
        1038  1043  1047  B2.6                                         
        1115  1127  1132  B3.8  SF  7613  S11E44                       
        1234  1238  1242  B3.0  SF  7613  S14E46                       
        1545  1553  1557  B6.4                                         
        2040  2331  0156  C3.2  SF  7613  S10E45        11             


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7613:  1   0   0     4   0   0   0   0    004  (66.7)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (33.3)

 Total Events: 006 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
01 Nov: 0720  0723  0727  B2.6  SF  7613  S08E50   III
        1038  1043  1047  B2.6                     III
        1545  1553  1557  B6.4                     V
        2040  2331  0156  C3.2  SF  7613  S10E45   III,Continuum

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


