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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9311290749.AA00201@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: WARNING: POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING - 29 Nov
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 93 0:49:37 MST
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Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
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Status: RO

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                  POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                        ISSUED: 06:00 UT, 29 NOVEMBER

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  01 - 02 December (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  29 November - 03 December

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR - SEVERE

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  APPROX. 48 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  7
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  8

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  5 - 6
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  6

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD - FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  FAIR - OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  VERY POOR TO USELESS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  35% PROBABLE

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
        Large, recurrent, and proven geoeffective coronal hole.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 30 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 40 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR
        MINOR STORM : 25 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MAJOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 05 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 20 %          ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 70


**  End of Warning  **


