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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9311040653.AA26870@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: WARNING: Potential Geomagnetic Storm Warning - 04 November
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 3 Nov 93 23:53:53 MST
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
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Status: RO

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                     POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING

                        ISSUED: 06:30 UT, 04 NOVEMBER

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    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  04 - 06 November (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  04 - 07 November

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR - SEVERE

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  48 TO 72 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  7
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  8

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  6
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  6

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD - FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  FAIR - OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  VERY POOR TO USELESS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  40% PROBABLE

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
     Recent CME and/or a well-placed, recurrent coronal hole.  Minor to
     major storming already being observed.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 25 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 35 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR
        MINOR STORM : 30 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MAJOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 10 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 10 %          ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 50


**  End of Warning  **


