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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Monthly Review of Solar & Geophysical Activity for Nov 93
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Date: Mon, 27 Dec 93 12:49:25 MST
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           --  MONTHLY REVIEW OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY  --
                          Summary for November 1993

                            Report compiled by the
                          Solar Terrestrial Dispatch
                                 P.O. Box 357
                              Stirling, Alberta
                               T0K 2E0, Canada
 
                    Data Provided In-Part Courtesy of the
                   Space Environment Services Center, NOAA
                                   and the
                NRC / Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory
                     Penticton, British Columbia, Canada


MONTHLY ACTIVITY SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 1993

     We are now in month 88 of solar cycle 22 (as of Dec 1993).  There were
213 flares (optical and x-ray) in November. No major flares were recorded and
for the second consecutive month, only 3 M-class flares were observed.

     A breakdown of the energetic events for the last four months follows
below.
         ____________________________________________________________
        |                    | NOV '93 | OCT '93 | SEP '93 | AUG '93 |
        |                    | --------|---------|---------|---------|
        |              Major |      0  |     0   |   N/A   |     0   |
        |      Minor M-class |      3  |     3   |   N/A   |     1   |
        | Class C or smaller |    210  |   257   |   N/A   |   151   |
        |--------------------|---------|---------|---------|---------|
        |              Total |    213  |   260   |   N/A   |   152   |
         ------------------------------------------------------------

     The monthly sunspot number for November was 51.0 as computed by the
SESC.  The preliminary RI international sunspot number for November was 34.8.
The preliminary smoothed international sunspot number centered on May of
1993 was 59.6.

     The monthly 10.7 cm solar radio flux for November was 95.9 which
results in a preliminary smoothed mean flux value of 114.8 centered on
May 1993.  The monthly mean solar flux adjusted to 1 AU was 93.8.  The
best absolute value of the estimated 10.7 cm solar radio flux for the month
was 84.4 (Series D).

     The largest flare of November was a class M2.1/1F flare from Region
7618 at 06:28 UTC. This flare was essentially radio-quiet and lacked sweeps.
Region 7618 was responsible for 16% or 34 of the observed flares during the
month, more than any other numbered region.

     There were no significant proton enhancements at geosynchronous
satellite altitudes during the month.

     The list of minor M-class or greater flares and associated radio
emissions observed during November follows:

SUMMARY OF MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENTS
---------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
NO MAJOR ENERGETIC EVENTS OBSERVED.


SUMMARY OF MINOR M-CLASS EVENTS
-------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
12 Nov: 0214  0225  0235  M2.0  SF  7618  N08E82        46
13 Nov: 0410  0417  0421  M1.1                          38        45
        0555  0628  0647  M2.1  1F  7618  N08E73


REGION FLARE STATISTICS
-----------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7613:  1   0   0     9   0   0   0   0    009  ( 4.2)
  Region 7617:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  ( 0.9)
  Region 7618: 14   2   0    33   1   0   0   0    034  (16.0)
  Region 7620:  7   0   0    18   1   0   0   0    019  ( 8.9)
  Region 7622:  1   0   0     4   0   0   0   0    004  ( 1.9)
  Region 7623:  1   0   0     3   0   0   0   0    003  ( 1.4)
  Region 7624:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 0.5)
  Region 7625:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 0.5)
Uncorrellated: 30   1   0     0   0   0   0   0    140  (65.7)

 Total Events: 213 optical and x-ray.

     The estimated planetary A-index for November was 12, compared with 14
for October. This gives an estimated smoothed value of 14.8 centered on
May 1993.  There was one sudden magnetic impulse observed during the month.
It measured 16 nanoteslas at 12:11 UTC on 18 November.  Magnetopause
crossings were experienced by both GOES-6 and GOES-7 following the arrival of
this disturbance between 16:04 and 17:18 UTC.  The disturbance was likely the
result of a well-placed coronal hole.

     The most active day of the month was 04 November where the planetary
A-index peaked at 77 (major storm).  The storm began near 23:00 UTC on 03
November and persisted through 04 November.  Major to severe storming
dominated the high latitude regions while middle latitudes experienced
predominantly minor to occasionally major storming.  This disturbance appears
to have been the result of another well-placed coronal hole.


    RECENT SOLAR INDICES (PRELIMINARY) OF THE OBSERVED MONTHLY MEAN VALUES
                        Last Updated 15 November, 1993
 
              Sunspot Numbers                   Radio Flux    Geomagnetic 
      ------------------------------------    --------------  -----------
       Observed     Ratio    Smooth Values   Penticton Smooth   Smooth
      SESC    RI   RI/SESC    SESC    RI      10.7 cm  Value   Ap  Value
      ------------------------------------    --------------  -----------
                                 YEAR = 1989
Jan:  203.2  161.6  .80       189.2  141.9     235.4  190.2    19   16.7 
Feb:  211.0  164.5  .78       196.0  144.7     222.4  194.0    15   17.0 
Mar:  176.8  131.0  .74       204.1  149.4     205.1  199.7    41   17.6 
 
Apr:  172.3  129.3  .75       209.9  153.1     189.6  204.4    23   18.2 
May:  207.0  138.4  .67       216.4  156.5     190.1  209.3    16   18.8 
Jun:  297.3  196.0  .66       220.1  157.9     239.6  213.1    17   19.2 
 
Jul:  193.9  126.8  .65       221.1  158.1     181.9  212.6     8   19.1 
Aug:  243.0  166.8  .69       221.5  157.4     217.1  209.7    20   19.3 
Sep:  240.7  176.8  .74       221.3  156.3     225.9  207.2    17   18.8 
 
Oct:  217.4  158.5  .73       223.2  157.1     208.7  206.3    21   18.3 
Nov:  255.0  173.0  .68       223.4  157.3     235.1  206.1    19   18.4 
Dec:  217.8  166.1  .76       217.3  153.3     213.0  203.3    16   18.4 
 
                                 YEAR = 1990
Jan:  239.3  177.3  .74       212.4  150.6     210.1  200.4    14   18.6 
Feb:  184.7  130.5  .71       213.9  152.9     178.3  200.5    23   18.8 
Mar:  198.6  140.3  .71       212.7  152.0     188.8  198.7    23   18.6 
 
Apr:  196.1  140.3  .72       210.5  149.3     185.3  195.6    27   18.3 
May:  187.7  132.2  .70       208.1  147.0     189.7  192.4    16   17.6 
Jun:  168.9  105.4  .62       205.3  143.8     170.9  189.9    16   16.8 
 
Jul:  204.3  149.4  .73       203.8  140.6     180.7  190.4    14   16.2 
Aug:  269.4  200.3  .74       206.3  140.5     222.6  193.9    19   15.4 
Sep:  186.4  125.2  .67       211.1  142.1     177.4  198.3    14   15.0 
 
Oct:  219.0  145.5  .66       213.1  142.1     182.0  200.6    15   14.8 
Nov:  196.1  131.4  .67       213.7  141.7     184.3  201.2     9   14.4 
Dec:  208.0  129.7  .62       216.1  143.9     204.9  202.7     7   15.7 
 
                                 YEAR = 1991
Jan:  213.5  136.9  .64       220.5  147.6     229.4  205.5     8   17.4 
Feb:  270.2  167.5  .62       221.5  147.6     243.0  206.3    10   18.4 
Mar:  227.9  141.9  .62       220.7  146.6     230.0  205.9    27   19.1   

Apr:  215.9  140.0  .65       220.7  146.5     198.8  206.8    17   20.0
May:  182.5  121.3  .66       219.6  145.5     190.3  207.1    18   21.7
Jun:  231.8  169.7  .73       218.9  145.2     206.8  207.4    44   23.0
 
Jul:  245.7  173.7  .71       219.5  146.3     212.0  207.7    27   23.6
Aug:  251.5  176.3  .70       218.3  146.5     210.3  206.8    30   24.7
Sep:  185.8  125.3  .67       214.2  144.7     180.6  203.9    20   25.0
 
Oct:  220.1  144.1  .65       208.4  141.6     201.3  199.7    31   24.3
Nov:  169.0  108.2  .64       202.2  137.9     172.0  195.4    33   24.1
Dec:  217.7  144.4  .66       193.7  131.6     223.9  188.9    15   23.0

                                 YEAR = 1992
Jan:  217.9  149.3  .69       183.3  123.6     217.6  181.8    14   21.1
Feb:  238.2  159.6  .67       171.8  115.2     232.1  174.8    31   19.8
Mar:  160.5  106.9  .67       161.6  108.0     171.3  168.5    14   19.4

Apr:  144.0   99.8  .69       154.3  103.1     158.5  162.9    11   18.9
May:  106.3   73.8  .69       148.9  100.1     125.4  158.8    21   17.5
Jun:  104.7   65.2  .62       143.3   96.9     116.7  154.2    15   16.6

Jul:  121.4   85.7  .71       134.3   90.6     132.3  146.6    10   16.6
Aug:   99.5   64.5  .65       124.4   84.0     122.1  138.9    15   16.1
Sep:   93.8   63.9  .68       117.5   79.6     116.8  133.7    25   15.9

Oct:  136.2   88.3  .65       113.4   76.5     130.8  130.5    15   16.7
Nov:  124.3   92.0  .74       110.4   74.4     145.2  128.2    14   16.6
Dec:  127.4   83.3  .65       107.7   73.2     139.1  127.3    13   16.2

                                 YEAR = 1993
Jan:   92.1   59.3  .64       104.5   71.3     121.0  125.6    17   16.0
Feb:  126.1   91.0  .72       101.2   69.2     142.6  123.0    16   15.9
Mar:  107.4   69.8  .65        97.0   66.6     136.4  120.6    24   15.3

Apr:   98.6   62.2  .63        91.9   63.4*    115.9  118.1*   19   14.9
May:   79.1   61.3  .77        86.2   59.6*    112.4  114.8*   12   14.8*
Jun:   68.5   49.8  .73                        109.3           12

Jul:   81.6   57.3  .70                         99.0           10
Aug:   59.4   42.0  .71                         93.7           12
Sep:   33.5   21.7  .65                         87.0           15

Oct:   73.5   55.4* .75*                       100.2*          14
Nov:   51.0   34.8* .68*                        95.8*          12*
 
* = Preliminary estimates,  Unmarked = Final Values.
 
The lowest smoothed sunspot number for Cycle 21, RI = 12.3, occurred in 
September 1986.  The sunspot maximum for this cycle (cycle 22) occurred in 
July 1989, with a peak smoothed sunspot number (RI) of 158.1.

Note: Prior to June 1991, the 10.7 cm solar radio flux measurements
originated from the Algonquin Radio Observatory near Ottawa.  From June 1991
onward, the flux has been (and will continue to be) measured from the
Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory at Penticton, British Columbia,
Canada.


      ------------------------------------------------------------------
      DAILY VALUES OF SOLAR FLUX AT 2800 MHz (PENTICTON-DRAO) AT 2000 UT
      ------------------------------------------------------------------
                         Data Valid for November 1993

           Data Courtesy of the National Research Council of Canada
                      Herzberg Institute of Astrophysics
                   Dominion Radio Astrophysical Observatory
                         Penticton, British Columbia
                                    CANADA

Series D is the best estimate of absolute value and is obtained by using the
multiplier 0.90 recommended by Commission V of URSI.

            1993       Observed                   Adj to 1 AU

                       Series C             Series C        Series D

             1           91.4                 90.0            81.0
             2           93.3                 91.8            82.6
             3           93.9                 92.4            83.2
             4           95.7                 94.1            84.7
             5           96.4                 94.8            85.3
             6           96.7                 94.9            85.4
             7           95.2                 93.5            84.2
             8           91.9                 90.2            81.2
             9           90.5                 88.7            79.8
            10           90.0                 88.2            79.4

            11           88.8                 87.0            78.3
            12           90.8                 88.9            80.0
            13           94.2                 92.2            83.0
            14           94.4                 92.3            83.1
            15          102.2                 99.9            89.9
            16          100.4                 98.2            88.4
            17          100.0                 97.7            87.9
            18          102.6                100.2            90.2
            19          101.1                 98.7            88.8
            20          100.5                 98.0            88.2

            21           97.2                 94.8            85.3
            22           99.3                 96.8            87.1
            23          100.4                 97.9            88.1
            24          100.0                 97.5            87.8
            25           97.2                 94.7            85.2
            26           93.2                 90.8            81.7
            27           89.7                 87.3            78.6
            28           93.2                 90.7            81.6
            29           93.8                 91.2            82.1
            30          103.7                100.8            90.7

            Mean:        95.9                 93.8            84.4


    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
              OUTSTANDING EVENTS - SOLAR RADIATION AT 2800 MHZ **
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
     DATE  KEY        CLASS         START  MAXIMUM DURATION  PEAK   MEAN
                                     U.T.    U.T.            FLUX   FLUX
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------
     November                       HOURS   HOURS   MINUTES

      1  Z 24 R   Rise Only         2039    2240     >160    17.0    11
         @ 3  S   Simple II A       2220    incomp    11.8   19.2    ---

      12   4  S/F Simple II F       2036.8  2037.5     2.5   23.3     6
           4  S/F Simple II F       2159.5  2159.9     1.3   64.0    22

      18   3  S   Simple II         2110.9  2112.5     4.8    8.0     3

      24 Z 22 GRF Simple III GRF    2041.4  2047.3    29      2.3     1
         @ 2  S/F Simple I F A      2047.8  2048.8     2.3    4.9     1

     ** All bursts are now observed only at DRAO, Penticton BC


  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
      SUMMARY OF AVERAGE SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL INDICES FOR NOVEMBER 1993
  --------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 (Based on SGDB data released by the S.T.D.)

10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux:  95.90
Sunspot Number:  51.00
Boulder A-Index:   9.13
Planetary A-Index:  12.03
Background X-Ray Flux (1-8A): B1.35

Proton Fluence at > 1 MeV: 1.4600e+06
Total (non-averaged) Fluence at > 1 MeV: 3.9420e+07
Proton Fluence at > 10 MeV: 1.2407e+04
Total (non-averaged) Fluence at > 10 MeV: 3.3500e+05

Average Daily Deviation of the Boulder Magnetometer:  18.10 nT

Short Wave Fadouts (SWFs):   0.13
Total Number of SWFs during Interval:    4
SWF Durations:   1.57 minutes
Total Duration of SWFs during Interval:    47 minutes

Average Daily X-Ray Flux: B2.93
Average Neutron Counts:  +0.10%
Average Daily PCA:  +0.00 dB


**  End of Monthly Report  **


