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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9311290757.AA00932@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WARNING: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning - 29 Nov
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: 	Mon, 29 Nov 1993 09:57:09 +0200
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
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Status: RO


                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                    WARNING ISSUED: 06:00 UT, 29 NOVEMBER

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 03 DECEMBER

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 29 Nov - 02 Dec (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 29 Nov - 03 Dec

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 4 DAYS: 10, 20, 60, 30 (29 NOV - 02 DEC)
(INPUT INTO THE AURORAL SIMULATION SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE - HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: APPROX. 48 HOURS

POTENTIAL LUNAR INTERFERENCE: MODERATE - HIGH

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR - GOOD

APPROXIMATE OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS (LOCAL TIME): EARLY EVENING

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        WASHINGTON STATE TO NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO
        NORTHERN NEBRASKA OR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO IOWA TO NORTHERN
        ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN
        MICHIGAN TO NEW JERSEY.  THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE POINTS SOUTH OF THIS
        LINE MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        THE U.K. TO NORTHERN GERMANY AND DENMARK TO NORTHERN RUSSIA,
        INCLUDING MOST OF NORWAY, SWEDEN, AND FINLAND.  EXTREME SOUTHERN
        REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT
        ACTIVITY DURING THE WARNING PERIOD.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.

SYNOPSIS...

     A moderate to strong auroral storm is expected to begin late on
     30 November and peak sometime on 01 December.  Residual periods of
     moderate to strong sporadic post-storm activity may also be observed
     on 02 December, although the strongest period is presently expected to
     occur on 01 December.  This forecast is based on recurrence and the
     confirmed observation of the solar-source: a large extension of the
     northern polar coronal crown.  The configuration and structure of the
     hole is similar to what was observed during the last solar rotation
     and hence supports the forecast for a similar potentially strong
     recurrence of geophysical activity.

     For those with our Auroral Oval Simulation Software, optimal input
     values of between 15 and 25 should be used on 30 November, changing to
     values between approximately 40 and 75 on 01 December.  Use the Internet
     command: "finger aurora@xi.uleth.ca" to obtain current forecast values
     and synoptical information.

     This warning will remain active until 19:00 UT on 03 December when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Warning  **


