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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9311041539.AA28821@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: AURORA WARNING: Middle Latitude Auroral Activity Warning
To: solar-warnings@lut.fi
Date: Thu, 4 Nov 93 8:39:05 MST
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-WARNINGS Distribution List <solar-warnings@lut.fi>
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Status: RO

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                   MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WARNING

                    WARNING ISSUED: 12:30 UT, 04 NOVEMBER

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\


VALID UNTIL: 19:00 UTC ON 06 NOVEMBER

    HIGH RISK PERIOD: 04 Nov - 05 Nov (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 04 Nov - 06 Nov

PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES FOR NEXT 4 DAYS: 55, 30, 20, 12 (04 - 07 NOV)
(INPUT INTO THE AURORAL SIMULATION SOFTWARE *)

POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY:  MODERATE - HIGH

POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: 48 TO 72 HOURS

POTENTIAL LUNAR INTERFERENCE: LOW - MODERATE

OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES:  FAIR - GOOD

APPROXIMATE OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS (LOCAL TIME): PRIOR TO 9 OR 10 PM

AURORAL ACTIVITY MAY BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        WASHINGTON STATE TO NORTH-CENTRAL IDAHO TO NORTHERN WYOMING TO
        NORTHERN NEBRASKA OR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO IOWA TO NORTHERN
        ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO SOUTHERN
        MICHIGAN TO NEW JERSEY.  THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE POINTS SOUTH OF THIS
        LINE MAY ALSO SPOT PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.

ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...

        THE U.K. TO NORTHERN GERMANY AND DENMARK TO NORTHERN RUSSIA,
        INCLUDING MOST OF NORWAY, SWEDEN, AND FINLAND.  EXTREME SOUTHERN
        REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO SPOT
        ACTIVITY DURING THE WARNING PERIOD.

* Contact: Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA or COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu for more information
           regarding the Auroral Activity Prediction and Simulation Software.

SYNOPSIS...

     Auroral activity has increased substantially over the last 12 hours.
     Minor to major auroral storming has been observed over the upper-middle
     and high latitude regions.  Conditions are expected to remain at these
     enhanced (and perhaps stronger) levels over the next 24 to 36 hours.
     Observing conditions during this time will be good prior to moonrise
     which occurs between approximately 9 and 10 pm local time.  Thereafter,
     moderate lunar interference (a 68% illuminated moon) will degrade
     observations from dark-sky sites.

     For those with our Auroral Oval Simulation Software, optimal input
     values of between 40 and 60 should be used on 04 November, changing to
     values between approximately 25 and 40 on 05 November.  Use the Internet
     command: "finger aurora@xi.uleth.ca" to obtain current forecast values
     and synoptical information.

     This warning will remain active until 19:00 UT on 06 November when it
     will either be updated or allowed to expire.


**  End of Warning  **


