From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Mon Nov  1 06:48:41 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA02419
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Mon, 1 Nov 1993 06:47:44 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA04885; Mon, 1 Nov 1993 06:05:40 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA04819; Mon, 1 Nov 1993 06:03:11 +0200
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA15074; Sun, 31 Oct 93 21:02:45 -0700
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9311010402.AA15074@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 31 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 31 Oct 93 21:02:43 MST
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1100
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                31 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 31 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 304, 10/31/93
10.7 FLUX=091.5  90-AVG=094        SSN=042      BKI=0032 1112  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B1.8     FLU1=2.7E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1132 2223  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=004,002,021,015,008,009,007,019   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.3   @ 1148UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 2336UT   XRAY-AVG= B4.9
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2215UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 0645UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2225UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 2325UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55365NT @ 0737UT   BOUTF-MIN=55337NT @ 1803UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+109NT@ 1701UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 1048UT  G6-AVG=+090,+016,-036
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=006,008,008/010,010,012
    KFCST=2223 3322 2233 3222  27DAY-AP=006,005   27DAY-KP=1112 3222 1111 1322
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 30 OCT 93 was  43.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 30 OCT 93 are: 2+ 1- 2- 1+   2- 1+ 2- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. The largest event was a long
       duration, filament related C5/2F at 31/1148Z from spotless
       plage Region 7612 (S16E23). The filament did not erupt and no
       radio emissions were observed. Region 7613 (S12E59) nearly
       doubled in area, in part due to increased visibility and also
       real growth. This region produced a C1/SF at 31/0834Z. A small
       region emerged near the leader of 7613 and was numbered as 7614
       (S07E47).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       at mostly low levels. An M-class flare from Region 7613 is
       becoming increasingly possible.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet at the beginning of the
       period. An impulse occurred worldwide near 0730Z and the
       field became quiet to unsettled and remained so until the
       end of the period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       at mid-latitudes should be mostly quiet for the next three
       days. The high latitude field should be quiet to unsettled.

            Event probabilities 01 nov-03 nov

                             Class M    30/30/30
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 nov-03 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           01/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions continued near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions are expected over the next three
       days, through 03 November inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7608  N10W26  237  0020 BXO  04  007 BETA
7613  S11E56  155  0540 EHO  11  004 BETA
7614  S09E49  162  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7612  S16E22  189                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 NOVEMBER TO 03 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7597 S18   085


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 31 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 2233 2233 2234                         1600


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 31 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
31/ 1059     1148     1219       S22E37   LDE    C5.3   80


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
30 Oct: 0009  0017  0026  B9.9                                         
        0108  0115  0123  C1.1                                         
        0638  0650  0707  B5.4                                         
        0837  0847  0859  B5.0                                         
        1022  1029  1040  C1.1                                         
        1147  1150  1152  B3.1                                         
        1207  1213  1223  B4.2  SF  7610  S10W72                       
        1421  1422  1425        SF  7613  S10E73                       
        1658  1803  1842  B3.9                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7610:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (11.1)
  Region 7613:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (11.1)
Uncorrellated:  2   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    007  (77.8)

 Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


