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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 30 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 31 Oct 93 15:42:14 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                30 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 303, 10/30/93
10.7 FLUX=090.7  90-AVG=094        SSN=032      BKI=2100 0101  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=B1.5     FLU1=1.7E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2121 2122  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=013,005,004,004,004,008,004,007   DEV-AVG=006 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.1   @ 0114UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 2212UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.9
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2335UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1805UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2045UT     PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 2255UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 2338UT   BOUTF-MIN=55344NT @ 1820UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+066,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+105NT@ 2002UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 1139UT  G6-AVG=+087,+017,-038
 FLUXFCST=STD:091,090,090;SESC:091,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=006,006,008/010,010,010
    KFCST=2233 3222 2223 3322  27DAY-AP=006,006   27DAY-KP=1222 1223 1112 3222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 29 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 29 OCT 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two C1-class bursts were
       observed. Region 7613 (S12E67) showed itself as a moderate size
       class D group which is new from last rotation. Due to spot
       orientation, it appears to be bipolar. Region 7608 (N11W11)
       grew slightly in white light. A dense 10 degree long filament
       located near S15E35 faded between 29/1151-2245Z. The coronal
       hole that caused the geomagnetic disturbance on 08-11 Oct is
       again visible on the sun. Its area, location, and intensity are
       roughly the same as last rotation.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       at a low level. An isolated M-class flare is possible from
       Region 7613 and to a lesser degree Region 7608.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet at all latitudes.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be mostly quiet at mid latitudes and quiet to
       unsettled at high latitudes.

            Event probabilities 31 oct-02 nov

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 31 oct-02 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           01/01/01
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  No changes are expected over the next 72 hours.
       Near-normal propagation should persist over all regions.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7608  N11W12  236  0030 DSO  04  008 BETA
7613  S12E66  158  0320 DKO  08  004 BETA
7610  S10W80  304                    PLAGE
7612  S16E35  189                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 31 OCTOBER TO 02 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 30 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 30 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
30/ 1658     1803     1842                LDE    B3.9  104


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
43   N60E42 S09E32 N18E12 N60E37  199  ISO   POS   025 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
29 Oct: 0151  0157  0159  B6.2                                         
        0200  0229  0311  B6.6                                         
        0340  0346  0349  C5.7                                         
        0415  0419  0423  B6.8                                         
        0541  0544  0549  B3.8                                         
        0801  0806  0807  B2.3                                         
        0805  0807  0811        SF  7608  N09E10                       
        1152  1154  1155  B5.3                                         
        1801  1808  1814  B7.0                                         
        1934  1946  1957  B4.7                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7608:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (10.0)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    009  (90.0)

 Total Events: 010 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
29 Oct: 0151  0157  0159  B6.2                     III
        0340  0346  0349  C5.7                     III
        0541  0544  0549  B3.8                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


