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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 30 Oct 93 10:12:19 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                29 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 302, 10/29/93
10.7 FLUX=091.8  90-AVG=094        SSN=038      BKI=4221 2212  BAI=008
BGND-XRAY=B2.0     FLU1=6.7E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=3322 322*  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=026,024,018,006,013,016,009,019   DEV-AVG=016 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B8.1   @ 1306UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.6   @ 0745UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.3
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2325UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2020UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2310UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 2305UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55374NT @ 0211UT   BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 1725UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+064,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1625UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 1126UT  G6-AVG=+085,+018,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:092,091,090;SESC:092,091,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=008,008,008/010,010,010
    KFCST=2333 2222 2233 3222  27DAY-AP=008,006   27DAY-KP=2233 2321 1222 1223
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 28 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 28 OCT 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. Only small-mid B-class
       flares were observed. Region 7608 (N11E04) retained the
       isolated pole in the leader but it is slowly weakening. A
       moderate size H-spot rotated over the limb and was numbered as
       new Region 7613 (S11E80).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       at mostly very low levels. Isolated C-class flares are
       possible from Regions 7608 and 7613.

            The geomagnetic field was mostly active from the beginning of
       the period until shortly after 0300Z. Thereafter, the field
       was quiet to unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next
       three days.

            Event probabilities 30 oct-01 nov

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 oct-01 nov

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/15
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  No significant changes are expected over the next
       three days, through 01 November inclusive.  Near-normal
       propagation should dominate.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7608  N11E02  235  0020 BXO  03  006 BETA
7612  S16E48  189  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7613  S11E78  159  0300 HHX  03  001 ALPHA
7607  S04W72  309                    PLAGE
7609  N12W38  275                    PLAGE
7610  S10W67  304                    PLAGE
7611  N18W93  330                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 OCTOBER TO 01 NOVEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0451 0452 0452                          120


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
29/ 0200     0229     0311                LDE    B6.6   71
29/A0830             B2245       S13E34   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
43   N20E53 S05E39 N15E25 N41E47  197  ISO   POS   020 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------
NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
              NO DATA PRESENTLY AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


