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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 28 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 29 Oct 93 8:54:02 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                28 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 301, 10/28/93
10.7 FLUX=088.5  90-AVG=094        SSN=047      BKI=3343 3224  BAI=016
BGND-XRAY=B1.5     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=9.7E+03  PKI=3344 3234  PAI=016
  BOU-DEV=024,025,046,029,021,019,019,044   DEV-AVG=028 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.7   @ 0802UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 0201UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.3
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2220UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2315UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1330UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1805UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 0352UT   BOUTF-MIN=55336NT @ 1709UT  BOUTF-AVG=55352NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+059,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1316UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-066NT@ 1017UT  G6-AVG=+082,+018,-038
 FLUXFCST=STD:086,085,084;SESC:086,085,084 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,008,008/015,010,015
    KFCST=2333 4332 2333 2222  27DAY-AP=025,008   27DAY-KP=5455 3322 2233 2321
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 27 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 27 OCT 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7608 (N10E16) produced a
       C1 at 0924Z. A very long duration B4 x-ray enhancement occurred
       between approximately 0212-1110Z. A loop prominence system was
       observed at S11E90 slightly after the enhancement and is the
       likely optical counterpart. A Yohkoh image at 0830Z also showed
       enhanced limb emission at that time. This same image also
       illustrated the source location of a C1 x-ray burst as being
       from a plage near S17E70.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       low with Region 7608 producing occasional C-class flares. The
       long duration event from beyond the east limb does not
       indicate a significant region is due to appear. The event was
       more likely from an erupting filament as opposed to a large
       flare several days behind the limb.

            The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Some high
       latitude sites experienced minor to major storm conditions
       near 1200Z.  This disturbance is most likely from a high
       speed stream originating from a hole now in the far
       northwest quadrant. A small forbush decrease was observed
       between 25-27 Oct indicating that storm conditions on those
       days were a result of a dense stream which originated from
       near central meridian on the sun on 21 Oct.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be unsettled on 29 Oct except during local midnight
       periods when active conditions should be experienced.
       Mostly unsettled levels are forecast for 30-31 Oct.

            Event probabilities 29 oct-31 oct

                             Class M    10/10/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 29 oct-31 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/15/10
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/20/20
                        Minor Storm           15/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were improving, but still
       below-normal over the high and polar latitude regions.  Middle
       and low latitude paths saw near-normal propagation with
       slightly greater levels of signal instability during the local
       night sectors.  Improvements in both signal quality and
       stability are expected over all regions during the next 72
       hours, through 31 October inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7608  N10E16  234  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7610  S10W54  304  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7611  N18W80  330  0020 BXO  07  004 BETA
7612  S16E61  189  0010 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7603  S17W82  332                    PLAGE
7607  S04W59  309                    PLAGE
7609  N12W25  275                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 OCTOBER TO 31 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0920 0924 0930 7608  N08E23 C1.1  SF    140


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
28/ 0212     0620     1110                LDE    B4.6  538
28/ 1929     1939     2013                LDE    B3.3   44


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
27 Oct: 0628  0640  0644  C9.4  SN  7608  N09E39        26                  27
        0909  0914  0918  B4.5                                         
        1125  1131  1135  C1.0  SF  7608  N09E36                       
        1457  1500  1504  B1.7                                         
        1615  1621  1633  B2.3                                         
        2356  0003  0006  B8.4      7608                               


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7608:  2   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    003  (50.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (50.0)

 Total Events: 006 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
27 Oct: 0628  0640  0644  C9.4  SN  7608  N09E39   II,III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


