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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 27 Oct 93 23:02:46 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                27 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 300, 10/27/93
10.7 FLUX=087.1  90-AVG=094        SSN=071      BKI=4455 6333  BAI=034
BGND-XRAY=B1.1     FLU1=4.4E+05  FLU10=9.7E+03  PKI=4466 6433  PAI=041
  BOU-DEV=057,042,102,096,129,038,025,029   DEV-AVG=064 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C9.4   @ 0641UT    XRAY-MIN= A9.1   @ 1554UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1940UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0325UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 1655UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 0252UT   BOUTF-MIN=55319NT @ 0838UT  BOUTF-AVG=55346NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+051,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+137NT@ 1529UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-144NT@ 0921UT  G6-AVG=+078,+019,-050
 FLUXFCST=STD:087,086,085;SESC:087,086,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,008/028,020,015
    KFCST=4454 5432 3454 3322  27DAY-AP=012,025   27DAY-KP=3433 2123 5455 3322
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*GSTRM
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM;**SWEEP:II=2@0640-0653UTC(1000KM/SEC)
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 OCT 93 was  46.7.
      The Full Kp Indices for 26 OCT 93 are: 2- 1o 3o 2-   2+ 4+ 3+ 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity continued low. Region 7608 (N09E29)
       produced a C9.4/SN at 0640Z with a minor 10 cm burst and a
       moderate importance Type II with a shock speed of 1000 km/s.
       Region 7608 is a broad bipole with an isolated pole of trailer
       polarity in the leader fields. Sunspot area here is small at
       about 30 millionths. A small region emerged at S10W42 and was
       numbered as Region 7610. Old Region 7592 failed to survive the
       invisible hemisphere transit.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should continue
       at a low level for the next three days. Region 7608 is
       expected to produce occasional C-class flares. An M-class
       flare from this Region is a slight possibility.

            The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels.
       Severe storm levels were reached at some high latitude sites
       during pre-dawn periods. The severity of this disturbance
       was unexpected.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be at active to minor storm levels on 28 Oct. Mostly
       active levels are forecast for 29 Oct and unsettled
       conditions should be experienced on 30 Oct. This forecast
       is based upon the equatorward extension of the northern
       polar hole whose high speed stream should sweep beyond the
       earth on 29 Oct.

            Event probabilities 28 oct-30 oct

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCA        Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 oct-30 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/20
                        Minor Storm           20/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/05/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/20
                        Minor Storm           25/15/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/05/01

            HF propagation conditions were seriously degraded over
       some high and polar latitude paths, particularly signals on
       transauroral circuits where fading, absorption, and
       multipathing were prominent.  At times during the local night
       and predawn sectors, conditions were unusable on transauroral
       and a few transpolar paths.  Middle latitudes experienced minor
       signal degradation, while low latitudes saw near-normal
       propagation.  Similar conditions are expected to persist over
       the next 24 to 48 hours.  Some stabilization may be observed on
       30 October, although this will depend on whether the high-speed
       solar wind stream from the approaching coronal-hole related
       disturbance proves to be geoeffective.  Full recovery may not
       finally be observed until early November.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7607  S04W46  309  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7608  N09E29  234  0020 BXO  05  006 BETA
7609  N12W12  275  0000 BXO  02  002 BETA
7610  S10W43  306  0020 BXO  03  005 BETA
7611  N17W66  329  0040 DRO  05  005 BETA
7603  S17W69  332                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 OCTOBER TO 30 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0628 0640 0644 7608  N09E39 C9.4  SN   1700 26     II
 1125 1131 1135 7608  N09E36 C1.0  SF    120


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
27/ 0640              0653       N09E39   RSP    C9.4   16  2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
26 Oct: 0037  0044  0049  C5.9  1F  7608  N08E55        23             
        0326  0330  0352  B2.0                                         
        0635  0647  0655  B7.5                                         
        0705  0724  0731  B3.7  SF  7608  N10E53                       
        0948  0953  1000  B4.1                                         
        1009  1015  1022  C1.4                                         
        1045  1050  1059  B2.9                                         
        1119  1122  1127  B2.1                                         
        1206  1227  1235  B3.0                                         
        1258  1302  1306  B3.1                                         
        1417  1422  1435  B2.8                                         
        1635  1641  1646  B4.7  SF  7608  N08E46                       
        1724  1733  1739  C3.6  SF  7608  N09E45                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7608:  2   0   0     3   1   0   0   0    004  (30.8)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    009  (69.2)

 Total Events: 013 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
26 Oct: 0037  0044  0049  C5.9  1F  7608  N08E55   II,III
        1724  1733  1739  C3.6  SF  7608  N09E45   III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


