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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 26 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 26 Oct 93 21:27:24 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                26 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 299, 10/26/93
10.7 FLUX=088.5  90-AVG=094        SSN=067      BKI=2032 2544  BAI=017
BGND-XRAY=B1.2     FLU1=1.2E+06  FLU10=9.3E+03  PKI=2132 2434  PAI=014
  BOU-DEV=017,004,025,011,012,071,042,055   DEV-AVG=029 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C5.9   @ 0045UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 2348UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.2
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 2335UT   NEUTN-MIN= -006%  @ 0410UT  NEUTN-AVG= -2.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1345UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 0125UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55362NT @ 1906UT   BOUTF-MIN=55321NT @ 1658UT  BOUTF-AVG=55351NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+146NT@ 1909UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-067NT@ 1153UT  G6-AVG=+091,+017,-039
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,015,010/030,035,030
    KFCST=3224 3233 3224 2111  27DAY-AP=015,012   27DAY-KP=1134 4433 3433 2123
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=3@0048-0057UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 25 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 25 OCT 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7608 (N10E40) produced
       all of today's observed flare activity including the largest
       event: a C5.9/1F at 0044Z which was accompanied by a Type II
       radio sweep. The region remains small and unimpressive in white
       light.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field was generally quiet to unsettled
       from the beginning of the period through about 1600Z. Since
       then the mid-latitudes attained active to minor storm levels
       and high latitudes saw some minor storm periods. A coronal hole
       appears to be the most likely source for this increase in
       activity. A footnote to yesterday's disturbance - magneto-
       pause crossings were observed at GOES-6 during the peak of the
       activity from 25/1330Z to 25/1700Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to continue at active levels with minor storm periods
       at high latitudes for the next 24 hours. Conditions should be
       predominantly unsettled to active on the second and third days
       although there is a chance for some high latitude minor storm-
       ing.

            Event probabilities 27 oct-29 oct

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 oct-29 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/10
                        Minor Storm           20/20/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/10
                        Minor Storm           20/20/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/01

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the high
       and polar latitude paths.  Most other areas were near-normal
       with below-normal periods reported during the local night
       sectors due to enhanced levels of geomagnetic and auroral
       activity, causing increased absorption, multipathing, and
       fading.  HF propagation conditions are expected to continue
       near-normal to slightly below-normal over the low and middle
       latitude paths.  High and polar latitude paths should see
       predominantly below-normal propagation until this disturbance
       subsides by about 28 October.  There is a small chance the
       activity could endure through to 29 October.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7604  N08W86  003  0030 CSO  04  004 BETA
7605  S17W76  353  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7607  S03W33  310  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7608  N10E40  237  0030 BXO  05  008 BETA
7609  N12E01  276  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7602  S09W73  350                    PLAGE
7603  S17W56  333                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 OCTOBER TO 29 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7592 S15   183


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0037 0044 0049 7608  N08E55 C5.9  1F     49 23     II
 1635 1641 1646 7608  N08E46 B4.7  SF    510
 1724 1733 1739 7608  N09E45 C3.6  SF    390


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
26/ 0048              0057       N08E55   RSP    C5.9   12  3


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
41   N52E04 N20W39 N23W56 N62W18  306  EXT   POS   026 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
25 Oct: 0839  0846  0851  B1.7                                         
        1151  1154  1156  B1.4                                         
        1407  1414  1420  B3.8  SF  7608  N07E61                       
        1915  1918  1921  B2.5                                         
        1955  2004  2008  C6.2  1F  7608  N08E59        67        71   
        2126  2131  2136  B1.5                                         
        2220  2237  2243  B4.8                                         
        2308  2338  0010  B5.7                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7608:  1   0   0     1   1   0   0   0    002  (25.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    006  (75.0)

 Total Events: 008 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
25 Oct: 1915  1918  1921  B2.5                     III
        1955  2004  2008  C6.2  1F  7608  N08E59   II,V

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


