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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 26 Oct 93 8:23:39 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                25 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 298, 10/25/93
10.7 FLUX=087    90-AVG=094        SSN=068      BKI=2124 6533  BAI=025
BGND-XRAY=A8.2     FLU1=8.8E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=2235 6533  PAI=029
  BOU-DEV=013,008,018,053,125,083,026,038   DEV-AVG=045 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C6.2   @ 2005UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.1   @ 1528UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.5
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 1955UT   NEUTN-MIN= -005%  @ 2130UT  NEUTN-AVG= -2.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1430UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1515UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55362NT @ 0149UT   BOUTF-MIN=55309NT @ 1609UT  BOUTF-AVG=55349NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+164NT@ 1535UT   GOES6-MIN=P:-096NT@ 1607UT  G6-AVG=+088,+016,-030
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,015/025,020,018
    KFCST=4445 2111 2224 4222  27DAY-AP=007,015   27DAY-KP=1113 2232 1134 4433
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@2009-2017UTC(450KM/SEC)
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 24 OCT 93 was  44.8.
      The Full Kp Indices for 24 OCT 93 are: 4+ 2o 2- 2-   1+ 2- 2- 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. New Region 7608 (N09E53) emerged
       on the disk as a small but hot BXO group and produced today's
       only C-class flare: a C6.2/SF at 2004Z. Regions 7604 (N08W74)
       and 7605 (S16W61) both showed decay. The remainder of the disk
       was quiet and stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.

            The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm
       levels during the period. An initially quiet field became
       disturbed shortly after 0600Z. Mid-latitudes were predominantly
       at active to minor storm for the remainder of the period. High
       latitudes were at active to severe storm levels. The peak of
       the activity appeared to be from about 1330-1700Z during which
       time mid-latitudes attained major storm levels and high
       latitudes were at severe storm levels. The most probable source
       for the disturbance was a filament eruption with an associated
       x-ray event that occurred on 21 October.

       STD: Neutron monitor counts were well below normal over the
       last 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 12
       hours as the current disturbance provides a high probability
       for nighttime substorms. Conditions are expected to be un-
       settled to active on the second and third days due to effects
       from a coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 26 oct-28 oct

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 oct-28 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/25
                        Minor Storm           45/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/25
                        Minor Storm           40/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    25/10/10

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the polar
       to middle latitude night-sector paths, and near-normal over the
       low to middle latitude day-sector paths.  Conditions should
       improve somewhat over the next 24 hours, with near-normal
       propagation returning by about 27 October.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7602  S09W59  349  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7604  N08W74  004  0100 DSO  08  006 BETA
7605  S17W61  351  0050 CSO  08  005 BETA
7607  S04W19  309  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7608  N09E53  237  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7603  S17W43  333                    PLAGE
7606  S05W62  352                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 OCTOBER TO 28 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7592 S15   183


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1407 1414 1420 7608  N07E61 B3.8  SF    130
 1955 2004 2008 7608  N08E59 C6.2  1F    110 67     II


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
25/ 2009              2017       N08E59   RSP    C6.2   13  2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
40   S30W58 S45W76 S30W79 S22W76  005  ISO   NEG   010 10830A
41   N60E59 N17W06 N21W32 N60E30  283  EXT   POS   051 10830A
42   S48W23 S50W50 S50W50 S28W32  328  EXT   NEG   010 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
24 Oct: 0241  0247  0253  B2.9                                         
        0358  0402  0405  B5.6                                         
        0457  0503  0506  C2.2                                         
        0548  0552  0555  B3.7                                         
        1410  1453  1503  B3.4  SF  7603  S14W26                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7603:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (20.0)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (80.0)

 Total Events: 005 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
24 Oct: 0457  0503  0506  C2.2                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


