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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 24 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 24 Oct 93 21:48:11 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                24 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 24 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 297, 10/24/93
10.7 FLUX=092    90-AVG=094        SSN=064      BKI=4211 1111  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=A8.5     FLU1=3.2E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=4222 1221  PAI=009
  BOU-DEV=054,015,007,007,007,009,007,008   DEV-AVG=014 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.2   @ 0504UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.8   @ 1253UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +000%  @ 2345UT   NEUTN-MIN= -005%  @ 0725UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.3DB @ 1255UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1630UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55366NT @ 0139UT   BOUTF-MIN=55337NT @ 1725UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+059,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1858UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-065NT@ 1219UT  G6-AVG=+081,+018,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/018,012,015
    KFCST=3225 4233 1115 4111  27DAY-AP=008,007   27DAY-KP=3323 2221 1113 2232
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 23 OCT 93 was  42.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 23 OCT 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low for the past 24 hours. A single
       C-class x-ray event occurred at 0503Z but no optical event was
       reported.  No new regions were numbered.  Old Region 7590 has
       returned as weak, spotless plage. A major filament (29 degrees
       long centered near N25W68) began lifting at about 1245Z and
       evolved into an EPL extending out to .33 solar radius near
       N22W90. The eruption ended by 1422Z.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low. Only isolated C-class x-ray events are likely from
       regions presently observed.

            The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet for the past 24
       hours. Unsettled to active conditions occurred early in the
       period but that activity ceased.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be active based on the arrival of disturbed solar
       wind originating with a filament disappearance and coronal
       x-ray event near center solar disk on 21 October. Unsettled
       to occasionally active conditions should then prevail for the
       remainder of the forecast period. Todays EPL is not expected
       to impact Earth.

            Event probabilities 25 oct-27 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 25 oct-27 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/20
                        Minor Storm           25/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor Storm           25/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/10/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over most
       regions.  High and polar latitude paths (particularly
       transauroral circuits) experienced periods of minor signal
       degradation during the local night hours due to enhanced
       episodes of geomagnetic and auroral activity.  Conditions
       should continue unsettled over the next 24 hours and return to
       generally stable levels by 26 or 27 October.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7602  S10W46  349  0020 HAX  01  001 ALPHA
7603  S17W30  333  0010 BXO  03  004 BETA
7604  N09W61  004  0110 CAO  08  009 BETA
7605  S18W47  350  0090 DSO  09  010 BETA
7606  S05W49  352                    PLAGE
7607  S03W04  307                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 25 OCTOBER TO 27 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7592 S15   183


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 24 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1858 1859 1859                          110


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 24 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
24/A1245             B1450      N26W58   DSF/EPL


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 24/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
23 Oct: 1407  1411  1413  B3.3  SF  7604  N08W42                       
        1656  1701  1709  B1.8                                         
        1744  1748  1753  B2.0                                         
        1759  1803  1807  B1.8                                         
        1820  1823  1826  B1.7                                         
        1828  1832  1836  B2.1                                         
        2104  2110  2121  B1.7                                         
        2153  2155  2158  B6.5                                         
        2216  2219  2222  B2.2                                         
        2236  2241  2246  B2.4                                         
        2330  2339  2341  B4.0                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7604:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 9.1)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    010  (90.9)

 Total Events: 011 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


