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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 23 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 24 Oct 93 17:55:52 MDT
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                23 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 23 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 296, 10/23/93
10.7 FLUX=092.2  90-AVG=095        SSN=090      BKI=1341 3232  BAI=011
BGND-XRAY=A9.9     FLU1=1.5E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2342 2232  PAI=010
  BOU-DEV=008,027,047,008,027,019,021,010   DEV-AVG=020 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.5   @ 2156UT    XRAY-MIN= A9.1   @ 2049UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1355UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0355UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 1510UT     PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 1150UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55361NT @ 1336UT   BOUTF-MIN=55345NT @ 1747UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+068,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+126NT@ 1916UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-075NT@ 0732UT  G6-AVG=+088,+016,-037
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,100,100;SESC:095,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,020,015/010,018,012
    KFCST=2225 4222 3225 4233  27DAY-AP=010,008   27DAY-KP=2333 2122 3323 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 22 OCT 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 22 OCT 93 are: 4- 3o 3o 2-   2- 3- 3- 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low for the past 24 hours. Region
       7604 (N09W45) has grown and produced several subflares. Region
       7605 (S18W33) fluctuated in brightness through the day, but
       neither region has threatened significant activity. A 10-degree
       quiescent filament near N25E15 disappeared between 22/1547 and
       23/1500.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to
       persist at very low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been mostly unsettled during the
       past 24 hours although intervals of both quiet and active
       conditions have occurred.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to persist at unsettled levels tomorrow, increasing
       toward generally active conditions in response to possible
       disturbed solar wind from a coronal event near center solar
       disk on 21 October.

            Event probabilities 24 oct-26 oct

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 oct-26 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/20
                        Minor Storm           15/25/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/40
                        Minor Storm           15/25/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/05

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the last
       24 hours.  High latitude paths experienced a few periods of
       minor signal degradation during the local night sectors.
       Similar conditions are expected over the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7602  S09W31  347  0030 CAO  05  004 BETA
7603  S16W18  334  0020 BXO  05  009 BETA
7604  N09W46  002  0060 CRO  05  010 BETA
7605  S18W34  350  0150 DAO  09  016 BETA
7607  S03E09  307  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7600  N14W86  042                    PLAGE
7606  S05W36  352                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 24 OCTOBER TO 26 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7590 N10   224


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
22/A1547            23/B1500    N25E15     DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
22 Oct: 1457  1507  1515  B3.0                                         
        1606  1614  1624  B3.0                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (100.0)

 Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


