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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 22 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 23 Oct 93 8:26:11 MDT
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                22 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 22 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 295, 10/22/93
10.7 FLUX=092.2  90-AVG=095        SSN=085      BKI=3332 2332  BAI=012
BGND-XRAY=B1.0     FLU1=8.8E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=4332 2332  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=038,037,037,010,019,038,020,018   DEV-AVG=027 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.0   @ 1508UT    XRAY-MIN= A8.3   @ 1714UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.2
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0730UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2345UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1535UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55365NT @ 0646UT   BOUTF-MIN=55345NT @ 1842UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+068,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+151NT@ 1544UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-067NT@ 0741UT  G6-AVG=+089,+015,-033
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,100;SESC:095,095,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/018,012,010
    KFCST=2224 4221 2224 4221  27DAY-AP=009,010   27DAY-KP=2022 3333 2333 2122
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 21 OCT 93 was  44.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 21 OCT 93 are: 1o 2+ 2+ 3-   3- 2- 2o 0+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
       New Region 7607 (S04E22) emerged on the disk as a simple
       bipolar group. X-ray images indicate a brightening on the north
       east limb which may be the return of old Region 7590, a
       producer of M-class flares last rotation. A filament associated
       with unspotted active Region 7600 (N14W73) disappeared between
       21/1449 and 22/1547.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low based on the attributes of regions presently visible.

            The geomagnetic field has been mostly at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. However, isolated periods at
       active levels were reported at some observatories.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to persist at unsettled to occasionally active levels
       increasing toward generally active conditions by the end of the
       forecast period based on a coronal disturbance seen in x-ray
       images on 21 Oct.  The disturbance was associated with a
       filament disappearance near S14W08.

            Event probabilities 23 oct-25 oct

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 23 oct-25 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/20
                        Minor Storm           05/05/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/10

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  Similar conditions should continue over the next
       three days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7602  S08W19  348  0030 CAO  05  005 BETA
7603  S16W05  334  0020 BXO  05  007 BETA
7604  N09W34  003  0030 CAO  03  006 BETA
7605  S17W22  351  0140 DAO  08  014 BETA
7607  S03E21  308  0010 BXO  02  003 BETA
7600  N14W73  042                    PLAGE
7606  S05W23  352                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 23 OCTOBER TO 25 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7590 N10   224


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 22 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 22 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 22/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
40   S30W37 S44W58 S13W58 S13W58  022  ISO   NEG   008 10830A
41   N26E31 N22E25 N24E02 N38E11  319  ISO   POS   006 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
21 Oct: 0046  0051  0054  B2.3                                         
        0102  0105  0107  B2.1                                         
        2038  2111  2216  B9.1  SF  7605  S16W07                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7605:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (33.3)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (66.7)

 Total Events: 003 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


