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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 22 Oct 93 9:42:04 MDT
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                21 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 294, 10/21/93
10.7 FLUX=095.1  90-AVG=095        SSN=097      BKI=1323 2000  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B1.3     FLU1=3.9E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1223 3220  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=006,021,017,026,013,004,000,004   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B9.1   @ 2112UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 1349UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.8
NEUTN-MAX= +005%  @ 1615UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2335UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1620UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1650UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55360NT @ 0800UT   BOUTF-MIN=55342NT @ 1807UT  BOUTF-AVG=55353NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+064,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1952UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 1053UT  G6-AVG=+087,+013,-035
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,100;SESC:095,095,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,015/018,012,010
    KFCST=3223 4433 3224 4333  27DAY-AP=013,009   27DAY-KP=3123 3334 2022 3333
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 20 OCT 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low during the period. A 15-
       degree filament near S14W08 disappeared sometime between
       20/2342Z and 21/1413Z. A new Region (S05W10) was numbered today
       as Region 7606.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low throughout the period.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels
       occured at high latitudes during the nighttime sectors.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled for the next three days with
       unsettled to active conditions on the first day. These effects
       are forecast due to a coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 22 oct-24 oct

                             Class M    10/10/10
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 oct-24 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/20
                        Minor Storm           15/15/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Despite the possible influence of a coronal hole, propagation
       conditions are expected to continue near-normal over most
       regions.  High and polar latitude paths may suffer occasional
       minor signal degradation during the local night sectors during
       periods of enhanced geomagnetic and auroral activity attributed
       to this coronal hole.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7601  N06W87  070  0120 DAO  08  004 BETA
7602  S08W04  347  0050 DAO  06  006 BETA
7603  S16E09  334  0040 CAO  05  009 BETA
7604  N09W20  003  0010 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7605  S17W09  352  0150 DAO  06  014 BETA
7606  S05W10  353  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7600  N14W60  043                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 OCTOBER TO 24 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7590 N10   224


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
20/A2342          21/B1413       S09W14    DSF
21/2038      2111     2216       S16W07    LDE   B9.1   98


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
40   S26W22 S50W43 S18W48 S17W41  026  ISO   NEG   009 10830A
41   N30E44 N28E43 N35E27 N43E34  316  ISO   POS   003 10830A
42   S33W10 S33W16 S30W20 S27W16  006  ISO   NEG   001 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
20 Oct: 0127  0130  0133  B3.5                                         
        0328  0331  0333  B2.0  SF  7601  N07W63                       
        0605  0616  0619  B5.0  SF  7601  N07W65                       
        0710  0719  0724  B4.8                                         
        0746  0751  0753  B2.6                                         
        0813  0823  0825  C2.4  SF  7601  N06W66                       
        0936  1002 A1109        SN  7601  N06W62                       
        0945  1001  1012  C7.8                                         
        1148  1153  1158  B4.7                                         
       B1422  1425  1433        SF  7601  N04W66                       
        1717  1721  1726  B2.1                                         
        2002  2022  2029  B3.3                                         
        2106  2126  2152  B9.1                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7601:  1   0   0     5   0   0   0   0    005  (38.5)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    008  (61.5)

 Total Events: 013 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                      20 October 1993, 12:10 UTC

                                    North
                      ............,,........,,,,,,,,,,...........              
             . ......,,,,,,,...,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::,,,,....           
           .....,,,,,,........,,,.......,,,..,,,,,,.,,,,,::::::,,,,...         
     ......,,,,,,,.....................,,.....,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::::,,,...       
   .....,,,,,::,.    .............................,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::,,,...     
  ....,,,,::::.      ..............................,,,,,,,,,,,::::;;::,,,......
 ...,,,:::::,         .....,,............,,,,,,,,,,,,,::;;:::::::::;;:::,,,....
...,,:::;;;:   ...... ...,,:;;::,.....,,,,,:::::,:,,::::;;;;;:;;;;;;;;;::::,,,.
 .,,,::;;;,.....,:,,,,.,,,;-+--;:,...,,,,,:::::::::,,:::::::::;;;;;;;;;;;:::,,,
..,,::;;-:..,..,;;;:,,::::-+!!|-:,,,,,,,,:::::;;;;:::::::::;;;;;;;;+-----;::,,,
.,,::;-+;,,....,::;:::::,:+||-;:::;;:,,,:::;;;-;------;:;--+|+;;;;;;-+|++-;::::
.,:;;+!!:,..,,.,,,,,,::;,,::::::::::,,,::::;--+|+++|||-:;-+|11;;;;---+||+++--;:
.,:;-|2|,,...,...,,,,,,,,,...,,,,.,,,,--;;::;;;---------;::;-;;;;--++!24431|+;:
.,:;---:,.........,,.,,,...,,,..,,..,,-!-;:;;;---;;;;;;;;;:::;-----+|4@#31|--;:
.,,::;;,,,................,::::,,,,,..,,,,:::;;;------;;::::::;;---++|21|+-;;::
.,,:::;:,,::,............,,,:::::,,,,,,,,,:::::;;-----;;;:::::::;-----++++-;;::
..,,::;;,,,:,,.......,,,:::;+!1|;:::::::::::::;;;-----;;;;:;;-;;;-------|!+-;;:
..,::;-+;::-+:,,..,.,::;;-|!1!!|;;:::::;;::,,:;;;----+--::;----------++|21+--;;
.,,::;-|+::-!-:,,,,,:;;+|!1!|-;;--:::::::,,:,::;;----;:::;;---------||!2!||++-;
..,,::;;-;::;;:,,,,,:;;+!1+;;;;-!1-:::::::::::,:;;::,::;;;;--;;;---++1431||+--;
..,,::::;;;:,,,::::::::;;--;;;;:::::::::::,,.......,:;;;;;;;;;;;;---!221!|++-;;
..,,,,:::;;;;;:::::::,,,,,,:::::::::;::::,.       ,:;-----;;;;;;;;-|!1!|++--;;:
 ...,,,:::;;;;::::,,,,.,,,::;;:::::::::,...       .:;;;;;;;;;;;;;-+++++-;;:::::
   ..,,:::;;;;-;;::,,,:,,,,:::,,,,:::,.           .,,::;;;::;;;;-----;;;:::,,,,
     ..,,,,::;;;;;:............,,...              ...,,:::::::;---;;;::::,,,,..
      ....,,,,:::::,.          .                   ....,,,::;;;:;;::::,,,,.....
               .                             . .....,,::;;;;;;:::::,,,,....... 
                                           .  ..,,::;;;-;;;;::::,,,,,.....     
                                            ....,,,,,:::::::::,,,,,.....       
                                                  .......,,,,,,,,.....         
                                                            ......             

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


