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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 20 Oct 93 23:46:09 MDT
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                20 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 293, 10/20/93
10.7 FLUX=094.4  90-AVG=095        SSN=082      BKI=0121 1211  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=B1.1     FLU1=3.5E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2121 1222  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=004,009,016,005,006,010,006,006   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C7.8   @ 1002UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.0   @ 1845UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.2
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 0010UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1635UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1535UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 2020UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 1424UT   BOUTF-MIN=55342NT @ 1718UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+120NT@ 1610UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-056NT@ 1326UT  G6-AVG=+089,+013,-033
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,090,095;SESC:095,090,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,015/014,018,012
    KFCST=2233 3322 2344 4332  27DAY-AP=008,013   27DAY-KP=1011 3234 3123 3334
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@2126UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 OCT 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 19 OCT 93 are: 2o 2o 2- 3-   2o 1+ 2- 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7601 (N06W73) grew
       rapidly from a BXO to a DAO classification and produced
       C-class subflares. The largest of these was a C7.8 at 20/1001Z
       associated with minor radio emissions. New Region 7605 (S17E06)
       was assigned.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       mostly low. Region 7601 is expected to produce C-class flares.
       There is also a slight chance for an M-class flare from this
       region.

       STD: Region 7602 (S09E07) produced a B9.1/SF flare at 20/2126Z
       that was associated with a moderate Type II sweep frequency
       event.  Background x-rays continued to increase to B-class
       levels as Region 7601 grew.  A special insert has been appended
       to this report showing the location of the southern polar
       coronal hole and growing Region 7601 as of 19:50 UTC on 19
       October.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly unsettled with active periods possible
       on the second day due to coronal hole effects.

            Event probabilities 21 oct-23 oct

                             Class M    20/15/10
                             Class X    05/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 oct-23 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/25/25
                        Minor Storm           10/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                25/25/25
                        Minor Storm           15/15/15
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions continued normal over all
       regions.  A weak ionospheric disturbance may begin to affect
       high and polar latitude paths (particularly transauroral
       night-sector circuits) on 22 October.  Increased levels of
       fading, absorption, and multipathing may also be observed.
       There is a slight risk for minor SWF activity over sunlit paths
       due to possible minor solar flare activity.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7597  S18W88  084  0060 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7601  N06W73  069  0200 DAO  07  006 BETA
7602  S09E07  349  0040 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7603  S17E21  335  0030 CRO  04  006 BETA
7604  N08W06  002  0010 BXO  03  002 BETA
7605  S17E06  350  0020 BXO  04  006 BETA
7598  S09W88  084                    PLAGE
7600  N14W47  043                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 OCTOBER TO 23 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 2106 2126 2152 7602 S09E08  B9.1  SF                II


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
20/2106      2126     2152      S09E08     RSP   B9.1   46   2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
40   S35W00 S43W02 S17W27 S17W27  016  EXT   NEG   011 10830A
41   N30E78 N20E58 N30E25 N39E48  308  ISO   POS   017 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
19 Oct: 0752  0753  0757        SF  7603  S16E45                       
        0842  0849  0857  B2.8  SF  7601  N06W51                       
        1845  1852  1903  B1.5                                         
        2246  2251  2259  B3.0  SF  7601  N07W59                       
        2303  2303  2311        SF  7601  N07W60                       
        2326  2344  2354  B3.3  SF  7601  N06W60                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7601:  0   0   0     4   0   0   0   0    004  (66.7)
  Region 7603:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (16.7)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    001  (16.7)

 Total Events: 006 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                      19 October 1993, 19:50 UTC

                                    North
                   ......,,,,,,,:,,,,.......,,,,,,,....      .
                ...,,,,::,,,,,,::::,,,,,,,,:::::,,,,,,,,,:::::,,,...           
            ...,,,::::,,,,.,,....,,.,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::;;;;;::,,,...        
       .....,,,,::,................,,,.......,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:;;;:,,,,..       
    ......,,,,,:...,..............,,,.....,...,,..:,,,,.,,,,,,,:;;;:::,,.      
   ....,,,:::,.  ...,,,,,..,,,,.,.,,..........,,,,,,,::,,::::,:,,:;;;::,,..... 
  ...,,,::;;,      ,,,,,,,,.,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::::;;;::::;;;::::::;-;:::,,,,..
 ..,,,::;;;:.,,,,...:::;;;;:,,,,,,,::::::;::::::;;;;--;-;;--;-;;;::::;-;;::,,..
...,,:;;;-:,,:;;::,,::;+|+-;:::,,:::::;;;--;;:::;;;;:;:;;;;------;;:::--;;::,,.
.,,::;;--;:::---;;;::;+122|;:::,:::::;;;;----;;;;;;;;;;;;-;-;;;---;;:::--;:::,,
.,::;;-+-::::;;--;;-:-!1!+;;;--;::;;;;--++++|||-;;;;;-+||+;;---;---;:::;-;;:::,
.,:;;+13;::,,,:;-;;;;:;;;;;;;;-:,::;;-++||!!!112!;:;+!!243-;-------;;;;:---;::,
,,:;+!21;,,,,,:;;::;:,,,,,,,,,,,,;;------++!!!||!!+;:;-+|+;;;-----+!!--;;-;;;::
.,::-++;,,,...,:::,,,,,::,,,,,,,:+-;;;;-+++++++++--++-;;-+++++++++!@@2+;;+-;;::
.,,::;;;::,....,,,,.,,:;;:::,,,.,,,::;;---+|+++++--;;;;;---++++-+++2*!+-;+-;;::
.,,,:;;--;:,,....,,,,:;;;;;;;:,,,:;::;;---++|++|+---;;;;;;---++|++++++---+--;::
 .,::;--;;;:,,.,,,::;-!2441|;::,:;;;;;;----++|++++---;;-+++++++--------|1!|+-;:
.,,::-||!42-::,,::---!3432!-;;:;;--;;;:;---+|+|+||+-;;+++++++++--++++||442|++-;
..,::;+|!12+;:::;++133332|+-;;:;;;;:::::;;-+|||+-;;;--||++-----++|1!!13421!|+-;
..,,:;--++-;:::;-!13**1!|--;;;;;;;:;::::::;-+--;;:;--++++-----+|||!34#*21!||+-;
.,,:::;;---;:::;;-+!||++-;;;;:;-;;;;;:....  ..,:-+-++++--------++!12**31|||+-;:
..,,::;;----;:::;;:::;;;::;:;:;;;;-;,         :--+++++-----;----+!233311!|++-;:
 ..,,::;;---+-:::::,:::::::::;;;;:,.         .:;--+-------;-----+|!!!||++---;::
   .,,:::;;-----:::::::::::::::,,.            ,:;;;-;-;;;;;;;;--+++++----;;::,,
    ..,,,,:::;;--;:,.,,::::,...                .,,::::::::;:;-+++++--;;;;:::,,,
      ....,,:::::::,. . ....                 .  .,,,,,,,::;-++---;;;;:::,,,,,,.
           ..                             ........,,,:;;-+++---;;;::::,,,......
                                        .. ...,:::;--+++++---;;;::::,,,,.....  
                                              .,:::;;;;;-;-;;;;:::,,,.....     
                                                 .,,,,,,::::::::,,,....        
                                                       ............ .          

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


