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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 20 Oct 93 7:31:35 MDT
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                19 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 292, 10/19/93
10.7 FLUX=088.8  90-AVG=095        SSN=064      BKI=2213 2111  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=A6.2     FLU1=2.4E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2223 2121  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=010,015,009,022,011,008,008,005   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.3   @ 2344UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.2   @ 0107UT   XRAY-AVG= A8.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 2320UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1525UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.6%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.7DB @ 1810UT    PCA-AVG= -0.1DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 1408UT   BOUTF-MIN=55346NT @ 1717UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+055,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+113NT@ 1811UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-081NT@ 0832UT  G6-AVG=+077,+014,-037
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,095;SESC:090,090,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=3334 4222 3334 4222  27DAY-AP=007,008   27DAY-KP=2232 2212 1011 3234
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 OCT 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 18 OCT 93 are: 2- 3o 2- 2-   2- 3- 1+ 1+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. A 10 degree filament
       near S08E35 disappeared at 19/0954Z. A new region was numbered
       today as Region 7604 (N10E17).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low throughout the forecast.

       STD: Background x-ray indices have been increasing throughout
       the day.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm conditions
       occurred at high latitudes during nighttime sectors.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days.

            Event probabilities 20 oct-22 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 oct-22 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            STD: HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all
       regions.  No changes are expected over the next 72 hours.
       Near-normal propagation should continue.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7597  S19W78  087  0060 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7601  N06W61  070  0030 BXO  04  004 BETA
7602  S08E22  347  0060 HSX  04  003 ALPHA
7603  S17E36  333  0040 CRO  05  005 BETA
7604  N10E08  001  0010 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7598  S09W75  084                    PLAGE
7600  N14W34  044                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 OCTOBER TO 22 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7595 N06   270
7593 S16   263
7594 N09   248


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
19/ 0950              0954       S08E35   DSF    AREA 10


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN

X-RAY IMAGERY SUGGESTS A POLAR EXTENSION, NEGATIVE POLARITY AT
CARR. LONGITUDE 015 EXTENDING TO LATITUDE S16.


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
18 Oct: 0217  0227  0232  B4.8                                         
        0613  0617  0621  B1.2                                         
        0916  0928  0940  B4.7                                         
        1925  1932  1939  B2.6  SF  7601  N05W46                       
        2156  2202  2208  B1.5                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7601:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (20.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (80.0)

 Total Events: 005 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


