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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 19 Oct 93 8:24:20 MDT
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                18 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 291, 10/18/93
10.7 FLUX=087.4  90-AVG=095        SSN=051      BKI=1322 2211  BAI=006
BGND-XRAY=A5.7     FLU1=5.1E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2322 2311  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=006,029,012,010,010,010,006,008   DEV-AVG=011 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.8   @ 0228UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.1   @ 1737UT   XRAY-AVG= A8.2
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1200UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 2215UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1435UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1530UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 1408UT   BOUTF-MIN=55345NT @ 1821UT  BOUTF-AVG=55357NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+058,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+111NT@ 1558UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-051NT@ 1511UT  G6-AVG=+077,+012,-028
 FLUXFCST=STD:085,090,090;SESC:085,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=3223 3233 3223 3233  27DAY-AP=010,007   27DAY-KP=4212 2232 2232 2212
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 17 OCT 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low during the period. An 18
       degree filament near S12E62 disappeared sometime between 1117Z
       and 1221Z. A new region (S17E48) was numbered today as Region
       7603.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low to low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels
       for the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast
       period.

       STD: Yohkoh x-ray imagery shows an extension of the southern
       polar coronal crown rotating toward the central merdian, which
       may have a minor influence on levels of geophysical actity
       later this week or early next week.  A special insert showing
       x-ray emissions from the Yohkoh spacecraft has been appended to
       this report.

            Event probabilities 19 oct-21 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 oct-21 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar normal conditions will continue throughout the next 72
       hours, through at least 21 October inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7597  S18W63  085  0080 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7601  N07W47  069  0020 AXX  03  005 ALPHA
7602  S08E39  343  0050 HSX  04  004 ALPHA
7603  S17E47  335  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7598  S09W62  084                    PLAGE
7600  N14W22  044                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 OCTOBER TO 21 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7595 N06   270
7593 S16   263


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
18/A1117             B1221       S21E62   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
17 Oct: 0032  0039  0052  B1.3                                         
        0332  0335  0337  B1.0                                         
        0514  0519  0523  B1.5                                         
        1109  1112  1114  B1.0                                         
        1311  1316  1323  B1.2                                         
        1358  1406  1411  B3.9  SF  7597  S21W40                       
        1442  1446  1450  B1.5                                         
        2318  2322  2324  B2.0                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7597:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (12.5)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    007  (87.5)

 Total Events: 008 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT
===========================================================================

                      18 October 1993, 08:10 UTC

                                    North
                        ..........
               ....,,,,::::::::,,,,,..   ..                                    
                ..,,,:::::::::,,,,,,,:,,,:,..         ...,,,,,,,.....          
              ...,,:::::,,,,,,,,,,..,,:,,,,.......,.,,,,,,::;;:::,,,,...       
            ..,,:::,,,,,....,.......,,,,,,,,.,..............,:;;;::,,,,...     
        ....,,:::,,,,,,...,,,,,,,........,,,,,,,,,......,,,,,,,:::::,,,,,,...  
    ......,,:::,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,...,,,,,.,::;:,,,,,,,,,..,.,,,,::;;;:::,,,,...
  ...,,,,::::,:,:::,,,,,,,::::,,:,:::::,::::::;-;::::::,,,,,,,,,:,,:;;;::::,,,.
 ..,,:::;;;:,,:-++-:,,,:::;;;;;;:::::::::;;;-------;;:;::::,,,:::,:::--;;;::,,.
.,,::;;--+-;:,;!1!+;::::;;;-----;::::;;:;;;;;----------;;::,,,:,::::::---;::,,,
.,::;;;-+|+---|22!---;:;----------;::::;;----;;;----;;-;;;:,,,,,,,,,,:---;;::,,
,:::;;;-;;--1+!!+-;;--;;;-+-++|++++-;:::---|!21-;----;;;;;:::,,,,,,,,,:;|-;:::,
,::;;;;;;;;;;:;;;;;::::::;-++++++-++-;::-+|!2*#!;-;;;;;;:::::::,,,,,,,::+-;;:::
,:::;;;;:;;::::,,,,,::::;;;-----++++-++-+-+++!!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;::,,,:,,::-+-;;::
,:;::;;:,,:,,::::::,::-::;;---++++++++++++--;:;;---------+-|*1-;:,,,.,:;;+--;::
.:::;;+;,,:,::;;:::::,::::;---++||+++-----;;;;;-----------+!41+;:,,,,,,:;|+--;;
.,::;-|-,,,,:;-+|+;;:::::;;;--++||+++++-;;;;;:::;;;---------+-;:::;:,::;+|+--;;
.,,:;-|!;:;;-!3**3+;;;;;;;;;;-+++|++++----------;;;;---;--;;;;;;--++-+++||+--;;
..,:;-1*1--+|1441+--;;;;;:::;-++||++++!+-;+++++---;--;;;-------|||242!|+|++-;;:
.,,:;;+!|--+!32!|-;;;;::::::::;-++||++-;--++|++-;;;;;-+++!!!!|!||2431!|++-;::,,
.,,::;;---;-++--;;;:;;;;;;;::,,..,,:;;;;-+++++----;;--++||!12213@*2!!!|+-::,...
..,,:;;--+-;;;:::;::;;;;;;:.       :-+++|+++++-----;;--++|!!!1*@#31||!!|+-::,,.
..,,::;;-----:,,:;;;;;;;:...       :+|++++++--;;;;;;;;;--+|!2444211!|||++-;::,,
 ..,,,::;;----;;;:;:::,,.          ,-++++++--;--;;;;;;;---+!!11!|||||++--;;;:,,
  ...,,,::;;--+-;:,,,..   Coronal .,,;----;;;;;;-;::::;;;-----+++++++--;;::::,,
    ...,,,:::;;;;:,        Hole     ..::::::::::::::::::;-----++++----;;;:,,,,,
      ......,,,,,,,,.                ....,,,::,,::::,,,::;--+++---;;;:::::,,...
                                   ....,,,,,,,,,,,,:::;--+++----;;:::::,,,.....
                                    ...,.,:::::;;;;--+++------;;;::::,,,,..... 
                                          .,:::;;;;;;;;---;;;;;::::,,,..       
                                            ..,,,,,,::::::::::::,,.....        
                                                ...........,,,.......          
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               
                                                                               

                                    South

KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission
     strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way:

     [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @

     Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes.  Get "showasc.zip"
     from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca
     (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens.


**  End of Daily Report  **


