From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Mon Oct 18 18:14:18 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA02354
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Mon, 18 Oct 1993 18:14:14 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA18153; Mon, 18 Oct 1993 18:10:59 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA18087; Mon, 18 Oct 1993 18:08:23 +0200
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA14372; Mon, 18 Oct 93 10:07:59 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9310181607.AA14372@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 18 Oct 93 10:07:56 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1072
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                17 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)

       NOTE:  SESC synoptical information was unavailable for this day.


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 290, 10/17/93
10.7 FLUX=090.0  90-AVG=095        SSN=049      BKI=3210 1211  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=**.*     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=3211 1212  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=028,010,006,004,008,010,008,009   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.9   @ 1406UT    XRAY-MIN= A5.5   @ 1716UT   XRAY-AVG= A7.8
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1640UT   NEUTN-MIN= +000%  @ 2315UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2315UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1645UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55364NT @ 1101UT   BOUTF-MIN=55332NT @ 1817UT  BOUTF-AVG=55355NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+068,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1717UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-056NT@ 1309UT  G6-AVG=+090,+015,-036
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=2224 4322 2215 4222  27DAY-AP=017,010   27DAY-KP=1114 4434 4212 2232
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 OCT 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 OCT 93 are: 1+ 1- 2- 2o   1o 2- 1o 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

     STD: Several small mid-level B-class flares were observed over
     the last 24 hours, the largest of which was a B3.9 event at
     14:07 UTC.  Region 7597 (S19W47) remains the most likely source
     for C-class flare activity.  No new regions were assigned.

     STD: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low over the
     next three days.

     STD: Geomagnetic activity was relatively quiet.  High latitude
     regions reported a few active periods early in the UTC day.

     STD: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue quiet over the
     next 72 hours.

       STD: Event probabilities 18 oct-20 oct

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

       STD: Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 oct-20 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            STD: HF propagation conditions were normal over all
       regions.  No changes are expected over the next 72 hours.
       Normal propagation should persist.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7597  S19W47  082  0100 CSO  12  006 BETA
7601  N08W34  069  0040 DAO  04  009 BETA
7602  S11E47  348  0090 HAX  03  004 ALPHA
7598  S09W49  084                    PLAGE
7600  N14W09  044                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 18 OCTOBER TO 20 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7595 N06   270
7593 S17   268


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
16 Oct: 0803  0818  0821  B1.4  SF  7597  S21W22                       
        0915  0930  0938  C1.3  SF  7597  S21W24                       
        1233  1254  1300  B2.4                                         
        1302  1305  1309  B2.1                                         
        1358  1406  1410  B6.9  SF  7597  S23W25                       
        2015  2018  2024  B1.2                                         
        2147  2157  2203  B2.0                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7597:  1   0   0     3   0   0   0   0    003  (42.9)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (57.1)

 Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


