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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 17 Oct 93 21:00:47 MDT
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                16 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 289, 10/16/93
10.7 FLUX=091    90-AVG=096        SSN=059      BKI=0122 1111  BAI=003
BGND-XRAY=A7.7     FLU1=1.1E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1122 1211  PAI=004
  BOU-DEV=004,005,011,013,008,008,005,005   DEV-AVG=007 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C1.3   @ 0931UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.0   @ 1224UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 0010UT   NEUTN-MIN= -001%  @ 1510UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.7%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1510UT     PCA-MIN= -0.6DB @ 1615UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55362NT @ 1404UT   BOUTF-MIN=55343NT @ 1739UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+110NT@ 1638UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-060NT@ 1343UT  G6-AVG=+091,+014,-034
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,085;SESC:090,090,085 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=1004 3011 1004 3011  27DAY-AP=005,017   27DAY-KP=2122 1211 1114 4434
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 OCT 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 15 OCT 93 are: 2- 2- 2- 1o   2- 1o 1+ 1- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7597 (S21W31) was
       responsible for a C1/SF flare at 14/0930 ut. There was no other
       significant activity.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7592 has the best chance for flare
       activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past
       24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be mostly quiet for the entire forecast period.

            Event probabilities 17 oct-19 oct

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 oct-19 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Similar normal conditions should continue through the next
       three days.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7597  S21W31  079  0110 ESO  12  006 BETA
7600  N14E04  044  0000 AXX  02  003 ALPHA
7601  N06W20  068  0050 CAO  04  007 BETA
7602  S07E61  347  0100 HAX  02  003 ALPHA
7598  S09W36  084                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 OCTOBER TO 19 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
15 Oct: 0703  0728  0734  B1.8                                         
        0809  0813  0818  B2.6                                         
        0847  0851  0853  B2.3                                         
        1039  1045  1047  B3.8                                         
        1158  1206  1211  B2.4  SF        N04E01                       
        1256  1302  1311  B1.9  SF        N04W00                       
        1558  1612  1619  B1.4                                         
        1629  1633  1635  B1.5                                         
        1913  2008  2017  B2.8                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    009  (100.0)

 Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


