From solar-daily-request@lut.fi Sun Oct 17 16:08:53 1993
Received: from lut.fi by cs.tut.fi with SMTP id AA22275
  (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4 for <rko@cs.tut.fi>); Sun, 17 Oct 1993 16:08:52 +0200
Received: by lut.fi with TULP
	(5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA29119; Sun, 17 Oct 1993 16:07:03 +0200
Received: from rho.uleth.ca by lut.fi with SMTP
 (5.65c/IDA-1.4.4/Kim-2.2) id AA29074; Sun, 17 Oct 1993 16:06:11 +0200
Return-Path: <oler@rho.uleth.ca>
Received: by rho.uleth.ca (5.57/Ultrix3.0-C)
 id AA07656; Sat, 16 Oct 93 17:42:06 -0600
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Message-Id: <9310162342.AA07656@rho.uleth.ca>
Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 October
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 16 Oct 93 17:42:03 MDT
X-Mailer: ELM [version 2.3 PL11]
Reply-To: SOLAR-DAILY Distribution List <solar-daily@lut.fi>
X-Sequence: 1070
Status: RO

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                15 OCTOBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 OCTOBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 288, 10/15/93
10.7 FLUX=094.1  90-AVG=096        SSN=076      BKI=1111 1100  BAI=002
BGND-XRAY=A8.2     FLU1=9.4E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2221 2111  PAI=005
  BOU-DEV=005,006,008,008,008,006,004,002   DEV-AVG=005 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B3.8   @ 1046UT    XRAY-MIN= A7.3   @ 2359UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.1
NEUTN-MAX= +004%  @ 1045UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1505UT  NEUTN-AVG= +1.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1735UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55366NT @ 2213UT   BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 1749UT  BOUTF-AVG=55356NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+112NT@ 1936UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-063NT@ 1258UT  G6-AVG=+092,+015,-038
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/007,010,010
    KFCST=2223 3232 2223 3232  27DAY-AP=005,005   27DAY-KP=2223 1111 2122 1211
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 OCT 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 14 OCT 93 are: 3o 2+ 2+ 2-   2o 2+ 2- 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. There were no significant
       flares this period. Region 7601(N04W02) and Region 7602(S09E80)
       were numbered today.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       at very low to low levels.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

            Event probabilities 16 oct-18 oct

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 oct-18 oct

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           10/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Many middle to equatorial paths experienced above-normal
       propagation with MUF enhancements of as much as 20 to 30
       percent above normal values during the day and evening hours.
       Normal propagation is expected to continue throughout the next
       72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z OCTOBER
----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7597  S20W19  081  0160 EAO  12  009 BETA
7598  S09W23  085  0000 BXO  03  002 BETA
7600  N13E17  045  0010 BXO  03  003 BETA
7601  N05W06  068  0040 CAO  04  010 BETA
7602  S09E74  348  0090 HAX  02  002 ALPHA
7596  N04W72  134                    PLAGE
7599  S12W49  111                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 OCTOBER TO 18 OCTOBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 OCTOBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 OCTOBER, 1993
----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
14 Oct: 0730  0834  0900  B5.2                                         
        2051  2058  2103  B1.8                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    002  (100.0)

 Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


